Criteria For a Successful Season
by ForeignFlopper on Oct 6, 2009 10:15 PM EDT
22 comments
So we've discussed and dissected this team's potential endlessly already (what else do we have to do in the offseason?), but I figured that I would throw my 2 cents into the overflowing change bucket. I haven't really posted much here at P&T, but I'm the stereotypical graduate student who loves nothing more than to read his own writing. It is in this spirit that I present some of my expectations for our lovely Knickerbockers for the upcoming season.
Despite what the media, Donnie Walsh, and the majority of pundits believe about the 2009-2010 Knicks season, I truly believe that it is actually important. Seth has mentioned this before, so I'm simply regurgitating his comments, but this season can make or break next summer's free agency. I'm very skeptical of the sports media's collective belief that the 2010 free agents will automatically sign with New York because they want to play in New York. One argument that is always trumpted by ESPN, etc. is that players can make more money in New York. My degree is in English, not Economics or Marketing, but I'm fairly confident that guys like LeBron and Wade have no trouble making money in small- or mid-markets. These guys are global icons, regardless of whether they play in New York, Boston, Memphis, or OKC.
One argument that is almost never made by the national media is the simplest: winning. I realize that I'm only a fan and not an expert, but I tend to believe that LeBron, Wade, and Bosh are going to sign with the team that gives them the best opportunity to win. These men are smart and know that their legacy will be dependent on the number of championships they win (if any). Compare our percpetions of Charles Barkley (zero championships) or Karl Malone (also zero) as players with Tim Duncan (4 championships, 3 Finals MVP's)...Yeah Duncan's probably better, but you don't think the championships have something to do with it?
As biased as we are, I think we all can agree that the 2010 Knicks are not winning it all...or probably even making the playoffs. However, there is hope for this season, namely Jordan Hill, Toney Douglas, Danilo Gallinari, and Wilson Chandler. As far as I'm concerned, these guys are our core. I love Nate and Lee to death, but my gut tells me they won't be wearing blue and orange next season. If we're going to sucker sign a major free agent next summer, at least two of these four need to have a strong season. That is my sole expectation for this season's team. If three of them having strong showing, then I will be ectastic. I will s**t myself if all four look good. Some individual thoughts:
Jordan: I'd like to see him as a starter or 3rd big by the end of the season. He needs to run the floor well and show that he can be the ideal-D'Antoni big. Let's be realistic, we're not going to see Amare 2.0, but Jason Thompson or Carl Landry would be great.
Toney: He need to do what Toney do. Also, demonstrating that he's a solid back-up point would be nice too. Unfortunately, I haven't gotten to watch him much, but do you guys think the next-Delonte West is out of reach?
Danilo: He needs to be the Messiah. That way if we whiff in the summer, we aren't completely f**ked.
Wilson: If Wilson can become a more efficient scorer while putting up the same kind of numbers as last season, then I'll be happy.
So there's my expectations for our core. Frankly, if I had to choose between these four having strong showings or making the playoffs, I'd have to choose the former. On a more sentimental note, I'd really love for Nate and Lee to look great, so that someone (probably not the Knicks) puts up the big money. Unfortunately, I'm not going to be able to see if my expectations come to fruition, as I'm spending the next six months in Thailand, and I'm guessing they don't have NBA coverage. I'm really relying on P&T this season, not to put any pressure on Seth or anything.
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nice post dude
have fun in Thailand. Smoke yourself a Thai Stick for me…
I do disagree with you about how much money LeBron, Wade, etc… can make coming to NYC rather then going to a mid market franchise.
While in Thailand, for example, see how many people there have heard of NYC compared to say… Memphis, or New Jersey, or even Cleaveland. The NBA is a global fanchise now, and nothing is more global then NYC.
Wade, may not be the biggest difference… but for LBJ? your talking a TON of money left on the table by staying in Cleavland.
You make a good point about Thai people having heard of the Knicks versus Memphis...
…but I’m sure they’ll probably know who LeBron is. I don’t have any evidence to support this (yet), but I think that, internationally, people know the players rather than the teams.
by ForeignFlopper on Oct 6, 2009 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions
True
But LeBron’s jersey is still the number 3 seller in the NBA. If he was in New York, he would be number 1 by a large margin. How else to explain why the jerseys of Nate and Lee are numbers 10 and 12?
I guess it’s the difference between being known, like LeBron is, and being a massive international brand, like Tiger and Jordan. Though, I admit, winning is probably a bigger factor than New York.
"Ariza on Mobley, trying to put some chillin on his thrillin"
"Vexing D, makes you hurry, makes you worry"
by Serious Garbage Time on Oct 7, 2009 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Lebron's jersey
isn’t number one because the Cavaliers uniforms are UUUUGGGGLLLYYY. In fact, if I were LeBron, I’d jump ship for that alone. The numbers are too skinny, the logo is gross, and the color combo is awful and brings out LeBron’s facial blemishes.
All good points
But Kobe’s jersey is number one. Ugly colors, bad numbers, etc., too.
Plus, he’s a (alleged) rapist.
"Ariza on Mobley, trying to put some chillin on his thrillin"
"Vexing D, makes you hurry, makes you worry"
by Serious Garbage Time on Oct 7, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions
funny thing
D.wade just commented that he thinks the Cavs unis are the best in the league! As for Kobe’s, I don’t really agree with your color assessement, but I suppose it’s valid. One thing about jerseys though, the classics will always have appeal, and while the Knicks and Lakers’ have changed a bit over the years, they’re fundamentally the same as they have been since 1970. The Cavs uniforms have been all over the place.
You make a strong point about LeBron's jersey, but
I still believe that if you’re an established NBA superstar, then it doesn’t really matter where you play. Chris Paul plays for NO, one of the smallest markets in the league, yet he was arguably ESPN’s golden boy in 2008.
On the other hand, if you’re a borderline star or role player, then playing for a large market team can really inflate your status and allow you to collect more endorsements, which is why Nate and Lee’s jerseys sell so high. For this reason, I think the Knicks have a huge advantage in the free agency, but up until now we haven’t been smart enough to exploit it. So if Gallo does superstar like we’re hoping, then we can easily build a team around him.
I've won multiple titles with the Knicks on 2k9, which means I have better credentials than Isiah did.
by ForeignFlopper on Oct 7, 2009 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
that would be different
if he was on the knicks.
now they know of LeBron. If he played in NYC, he would be known as the Knick LeBron.
Great post man.
We’re always looking for free Knicks games online, I think that would probably benefit you.
If there are two things I’ve come to value here at Posting & Toasting, they are great command of English and poop jokes. Like you said in your post, two out of four (or, in this case, one out of two) is dynamite.
"I'll probably go get lifted right now with Greg. Hey, and come back tomorrow and try to get another win."
-Renaldo
Long-time Reader, New Contributor Too
Though I only did it for the first 3 months, I watched the Knicks and other basketball on the NBA Broadband Channel while I was abroad in Spain, and the quality was worth the price and I think they offer a week long trial. So, you should check that out.
I agree with you on LeBron’s priorities. He understands the legacy that comes with winning – and that will be his top priority. I also believe that market size WILL play a role. He wants to transcend the sport and become a billionaire as well. Not knocking your English degree in any way (as you’re probably a better writer), but good business says NY places you within proximity of wealthier and more powerful people, corporations, and institutions. LeBron in NY has no limits and would, I believe outreach Jordan (not basketball-wise obviously).
This year IS important, partially because I believe we have a solid team that should win between 38-44 games. We are more well-rounded as a roster, and still a young team growing. The players will have a full year under D’Antoni’s tutelage as opposed to last years roster juggling. To build on this, I don’t think that the LeBron sweepstakes are make or break, we have a solid young core to rock with.
From what I’ve watched from training camp video and the first preseason game, Jordan Hill has a LONG way to go. I’m not saying he won’t get there, but I doubt he sees significant minutes this year (<12per). Toney Douglas on the other hand should get steady backup minutes and will be effective. He’s older than most rookies, played in a pro system at Florida St, and is tough as hell. Delonte West isn’t a very good comparison though, as Toney is more defensive-minded and more of a distributor. We’ll wait to see him play to make a comparison.
Unlike Douglas, I have seen Hill play and you’re right about him being raw. Of the four, I feel like he’s the least likely to have a strong season. While I wrote that Landry and Thompson would be nice, my expectations are definately not that high; if he’s starting or the 3rd big by the end of the season, he’s exceeded expectations. Frankly, my only real hope is that he shows flashes of something this season, so we can still use the magical “p” and “u” words when we talk about him.
The truth is that I have a total mancrush on Hill. I don’t know if he’ll become a good pro, but we all want him to get there. In the meantime, I want to be his biggest booster on P&T, filling the game threads and comments sections with long-winded arguments for more PT, even if he has done nothing to justify it. For me, I think that’s a reasonable goal.
by ForeignFlopper on Oct 7, 2009 1:32 AM EDT up reply actions
My man-crush
is on Douglas. I’m thinking he’ll be like Chauncey Billups. My prediction is that he’ll learn a lot from backing up Duhon this year, then the Knicks won’t be able to re-sign Duhon and they’ll have to go with Douglas and he’ll thrive and become their floor leader in 2010 and beyond.
If
Gallo is the messiah and the Knicks win over 40 games, I’d almost rather they whiff after the season at LeBron/Wade/Bosh… because then they can re-sign Nate and Lee, and still sign a max guy in 2011.
Something I forgot to mention in the FanPost
The whole point of my post was to emphasize a couple of things, one being that we shouldn’t take it for granted that a superstar will leave their team. I could be mistaken, but I’m pretty sure that only Tracy MacGrady, Grant Hill, and Shaq have left their teams in their primes through free agency.
However, if we are serious about our plan to sign [insert free agent superstar] in 2010, then we need to look to the Nets as our main competition. Basically our core needs to prove that it is better than their core. This could be a huge blow to our collective karma, but we should probably hope that Lopez or Harris gets injured and/or plays horrendously.
I've won multiple titles with the Knicks on 2k9, which means I have better credentials than Isiah did.
Couldn't agree more
Based on my recollection, the big time players that left through free agency, without a sign and trade, over the last 15 years or so are:
Shaq
Ben (I’m not Marcellus) Wallace
Rashard Lewis
Joe Johnson
Steve Nash
Hedo
MacGrady
Kenyon Martin (sign-and-trade, but only for draft picks, so I say it counts)
Vlade Divac
Allan Houston
Gilbert Arenas
Carlos Boozer
(Note: Grant Hill was a sign and trade)
Many good players, including a few all-stars and MVPs on that list, but that really isn’t that many top level players for that time period.
"Ariza on Mobley, trying to put some chillin on his thrillin"
"Vexing D, makes you hurry, makes you worry"
by Serious Garbage Time on Oct 7, 2009 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions
well you're in luck
first of all. pause all those man crushes.
now. i think your hopes of wilson’s efficiency taking a jump is pretty good. if one pre-season game is a good measure, and it is, wilson is going to be one of the league leaders in 3pt’s made. his shot looked incredibly more steady and simplified. and it should help a ton. defenders will be more prone to over-commit and kevin garnett will tell you, wc is a force when he gets in the lane.
gallinari is a pure shooter. its the last thing opposing teams want on the floor when guarding against a d’anteami. my only concern is that i don’t want him to get burnt out in the first half a la goosedown last year.
douglas has it. and hill can hopefully start to figure it out as the season progresses. my personal jury is still out on them tho. but i like what i see.
the future is bright under the city lights.
twitter.com/aighttho
by stingy d on Oct 7, 2009 4:07 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
so does al harrington
to clarify
If the current team pretty much stays together (no wholesale changes 1/2 way through the season, I think that this team could reach the playoffs – just barely, probably down to the wire, and they won’t get past the 1st round
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