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Kevin Pelton on New York's Slow Start

Kevin Pelton is one of the smartest people on Earth who knows who Nathan Jawai is. The man analyzes basketball with a degree of sophistication that makes gray matter ooze out of my ears, so when I see that KP's got something to say about the Knicks, I tend to listen. His most recent article is of particular interest. Though the basis for the piece's publishing was the Allen Iverson flirtation, it's still worthwhile after the fact. Using graphs, and presumably a bit of wizardry, Pelton demonstrates that a lot of the Knicks' suffering can be attributed to sub-awful starts from a few rotation players. Wilson Chandler, Chris Duhon, and Nate Robinson have each opened the '09-'10 campaign with a whimper, and it shows in a series of charts plotting each of those Knicks against comparable players. I won't try and explain the methodology here, but long story short, Wil, Du, and Nate stuck in Slumpsville like you wouldn't believe, particularly in regard to their shooting percentages. It's as evident in the numbers as it is on the court that their collective crappiness is more than a little detrimental to the team's overall success.

Pelton uses this evidence to break down the now-bygone Iverson possibility:

In this context, the Knicks' pursuit of Iverson looks like an overreaction to a slow start that isn't reflective of the team's talent level. Slumps or no, New York has room to improve its core talent, but the backcourt seems like an odd place to look, given it was the team's strength a year ago. In particular, the Knicks' existing guards already offer similar skill sets to Iverson's. Robinson is a prolific scorer in a point guard's body, just like Iverson, except that he was the more effective of the two players a year ago. A similar description also applies to rookie Toney Douglas, who has been an efficient scorer off the bench this season. Even if Iverson is an upgrade on Douglas, it's not worth cutting into the playing time of a youngster who is a part of the team's future.

See? Smart people sometimes agree with me. Read more for more detailed analysis, as well as data from the one Knick guard who's stepped it up in the early-going.

Anyway, the Iverson stuff seems to be behind us, but when discussing the Knicks' abysmal offensive start, the conversation should probably begin with the trio of Knicks mentioned above. Either start hitting or stop shooting, fellas.

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he might be smart

but that was the obvious statement of the year

by nba refs: man up on Nov 20, 2009 2:07 PM EST reply actions  

true

well, at least we weren’t seeing things, eh?

by Seth on Nov 20, 2009 2:21 PM EST up reply actions  

agreed

and im glad donnie saw the same

by nba refs: man up on Nov 20, 2009 2:27 PM EST reply actions  

i heart basketball prospectus

in fact, i love all things prospectus. there should be college classes on VORP, PECOTA, and DVOA.

Ewing with the step...YES! and the foul!

by Anthony Masons Haircut on Nov 20, 2009 3:02 PM EST reply actions  

that was an excellent article.

I was in the wrong on that one. iverson would have helped the knicks initially, but in a few weeks or months when players got it going up to there potential (especially chandler, TD, nate) ny would have had a log jam of old, young, and a duhon fighting for minutes. this is the perfect system for A.I., just not a good time to add him to it in terms of the direction of the franchise.

I guess im not the patient man that donnie walsh is, and am not qualified to be head of basketball operations. I also sometimes drink too much and have a fear of commitment.

by Ray Smuckles on Nov 20, 2009 3:38 PM EST reply actions  

start with Columbia House

get a bunch of cheap DVDs and that will help jumpstart the ‘commitment’

by Chris Child's Fist on Nov 20, 2009 5:06 PM EST up reply actions  

like almost everything there

Duhon over achieved last year, Chandler just got stuck and pressured trying to play out of position this year. The rest of the guys will get back to form but that cursed Duhon will continue to enrage me.

If it’s not clear I really dislike Duhon….I’m beginning to think he may have been a parting suggestion from Thomas.

What did the 5 fingers say to the face?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7CBwX1891A
HaHaHaHa!

by Lord Smackington on Nov 20, 2009 5:37 PM EST reply actions  

oh well

i still think at the least iverson would have been fun to watch.

And it would have also been nice to have a go to guy to lead this team.

But i get the decision. Hopefully something happens soon… this team as is, is no good.

by gbaked on Nov 20, 2009 6:34 PM EST reply actions  

Maybe this was a good idea regarding AI, but that doesn’t let Walsh off the hook in my book. Look who he’s drafted and who he’s passed up. Galinari instead of Gordon and Hill instead of Jennings. The Knicks would have a very good team with Jennings and Gordon in the backcourt and Lee and Chandler up front with Nate off the bench. Walsh is clueless.

by babbaloo on Nov 20, 2009 6:43 PM EST reply actions  

i think gordon is somewhat overrated

dont get me wrong hes a great player but what would he be on a contending team? a very very good 6th man, ala jason terry. is he gonna play POINT for a contender? No….so he’s gonna be a defensive liability at the 2? on a contender? Maybe i guess. He can score and somehwat hold his own at the PG, his ceiling to me seems to be terry. not that terry is bad, but I am of the beleif gallo can and will be better than that.

www.recruitzero.com

by Prezs2ReprsntMe on Nov 20, 2009 7:19 PM EST up reply actions  

who are you

why are you eve writing such garbage, fuck gordon gallinari is going to be a star. as for jennings, well the whole NY knew at draft day that he was the choice but honestly whose to say he wouldnt have been another michael ray

by IB on Nov 21, 2009 12:52 AM EST up reply actions  

take it easy mayne

even terrible opinions deserve to be heard, I mean my crap gets posted so…

What did the 5 fingers say to the face?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7CBwX1891A
HaHaHaHa!

by Lord Smackington on Nov 21, 2009 4:45 PM EST up reply actions  

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