Chandler's Progress in 2009 and Future Prediction

by philee on Dec 30, 2009 2:11 PM EST

Going to break down Chander's progress in the first 3rd of the season as compared to last year. Stats and fun after the jump..

Wilson Chandler, along with David Lee (I can't count N8 this year) is essentially the last remnants of the Isiah era and as many have pointed out before, maybe his best pick. We all knew the athleticism was there, but we wanted to see him grow as a smarter, more efficient player (meaning less terrible 3's). What we're seeing is the makings of a solid forward.

2008/09:

2008/09:
33.4 minutes/game
14.4 Pts/game
2.1 Ast/game
5.4 TRB/game
.9 Stl/game
.9 blk/game
.448% FG (5.5/12.9)
.328% 3pt (1.3/3.8 made/attempts per game)
1.7 TO / Game
2.1/2.6 FTA/FTM per game

2009/10:
34.4 minutes/game
14.0 Pts/game
1.8 Ast/game
5.1 TRB/game
.7 Stl/game
.8 blk/game
.446% FG(5.7/12.9)
.269% 3pt (.8/3.0 made/attempts per game)
1.5 TO / game
1.7/2.0 FTA/FTM per game

Looking at the overall stats, he's been essentially the same player as last year. HOWEVER, any Knicks fan will tell you that he's been recovering from an ankle injury the first month and a half and this past month is where we really have to look to see what a healthy Chandler can do:

2009 December:
36.2 minutes/game
16.5 Pts/game
1.9 Ast/game
5.2 TRB/game
1.0 Stl/game
.5 blk/game
.50.5% FG (7.0/13.9)
.290% 3pt (.8/2.7 made/attempts per game)
1.5 TO / game
1.7/2.1 FTA/FTM per game

December Comparison vs. 2008/09
I know, 1 month is a really small sample, but just thinking logically, isn't this all where we thought his game would end up? The one thing that stands out to me is his 3 pt attempts: he is a terrible 3pt shooter, but on the bright side, he's taking 1 less per game vs. last year. Also, despite the slight increase in minutes, he's been able to keep his TO/game at essentially the same level.

Defense and SF vs. SG
Also, for all of Chandler's abilities, he really hasn't been the defensive stopper that we've been hoping for. Again, blks and stls will never tell the whole story, but if Gallo is able to avg a blk/game, with Chandler's athleticism, why can't he? I think the answer lies more in his playing position.

Looking at the position data courtesy of 82games (http://www.82games.com/0910/09NYK5.HTM), he seems to be a more effective player as a SG rather then SF. Here's a quick stat breakdown:

Chandler playing SG:
+6 (Net)
Net -2.6 PER (his PER minus opponent's PER)

Chandler playing SF:
-65 (Net)
Net -5.3 PER (his PER minus opponent's PER)

Again, +/- stats has it flaws, but when it differentiates by this much, it's at least notable that Chandler seems to be more effective as a SG.

Eye Test
I don't live in the NY metro area (meaning no MSG network) and I don't have NBA Broadband Access, but I've seen a couple of games, so I have to rely more on these stats and the small dosage that I've seen. Also, I'm relying on other posters on this blog to help me with Chandler's live play and it seems like he's still settling for too many jumpers (although as of late he seems to have been going to the hoop more).

Also, I haven't really seen anyone mention that he sucks on D, so I'm assuming he's doing at least a decent job, but wonder if Chandler is a good defender (I don't ever really notice him on the court which could be a good thing on D).

Conclusions
I think Chandler for all his athletic prowess doesn't contain much more basketball talent. In the end, I think he serves as a solid rotation SG who's capable of taking it the rim and be a solid defensive player, but for anyone who thinks that Chandler will become more then a 17 pts/7 rebs/1 stl/1blk (at best) a game player needs to reevaluate. Yes he's 22 and there could be more growth, but from what I've seen, I don't see him getting any better then that unless either A) His handle improves much more so he gets to the line more often, B) Everything clicks with him defensively, or C) His 3pt shot DRAMATICALLY improves. I'm not saying he can't get there, but personally, I don't think he'll be much more then a solid SG/SF type, something like a poor man's Danny Granger.

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Comments

Wil's definitely forcing me to reassess.

I’ve been down on him for a while, mostly because I feel you need more consistent production from your starting 2 or 3, but he’s been playing well lately and showing signs of becoming a more cerebral player (i.e. taking fewer 3s). Ideally we would have a 2 that can stretch defenses and hit the three, but the tweener combo of Gallo and Wil would be pretty effective, provided they could guard anybody.

The thing with Wil though, is that he’s not good enough to be untouchable. He is one of the few players that would make some of our toxic assets not seem as toxic, plus his rookie contract is up soon. Wouldn’t be shocked if he’s shipped.

"But when he saw it, he just put his hands up and they couldn’t give it to him. It just fell to the ground, I-I don’t, you know … So, that showed me he had great experience..." - Jeff Van Gundy

by Anthony Bonner's Subpoena on Dec 30, 2009 3:11 PM EST reply actions

I like Will.

I think he’s part of the solution, and on the Knicks sort of solution.

He’s a good player when he plays like he should.

…he could be Trevor Ariza part 2…SO KEEP HIM DAMMIT!

by FreeBradshaw on Dec 30, 2009 3:45 PM EST reply actions

I agree

that the Knicks shouldn’t trade him, but disagree that he’s a Trevor Ariza esque player..I still haven’t seen Chadler demonstrate the talent on the defensive end or the explosive athletcism (Chandler to me is a more ‘smooth’ player). The main reason I wouldn’t trade Chandler is he comes cheap for one more year, unless we can unload him with Curry.

by philee on Dec 30, 2009 4:25 PM EST up reply actions

Thats really it.

I like him too. He’s a homegrown guy who has proven himself to be an NBA caliber player, even though nobody knew who he was when we drafted him. He’s relatively versatile, he’s cheap, and his interviews are always a must-see (guy is terrified in front of a mic).

If he and Curry are packaged together for an expiring, though? Its been real, WIl,

"But when he saw it, he just put his hands up and they couldn’t give it to him. It just fell to the ground, I-I don’t, you know … So, that showed me he had great experience..." - Jeff Van Gundy

by Anthony Bonner's Subpoena on Dec 30, 2009 5:31 PM EST up reply actions

lol definitely is terrified in front of a camera

CHUUUUUUUUUUUUUCH

by IB on Dec 30, 2009 9:42 PM EST up reply actions

mr wilson is a great piece of a team

i’d absolutely LOVE to keep him around for another contract. in the three-four year range. and assuming he doesn’t break our bank.

the thing with wilson, to me, is that he can actualize on his basic roof potential that you suggested (18 and 6 with a steal and a block, seems right on to me). i think the kid can score. and with a few more years of seasoning, he’ll bang the jumpers when they’re open, and he’ll get to the line more.

you guys remember when oakley just started to suddenly be able to hit 15 footers? and then before your knew it, he could hit 18 footers. and eventually his corner jumper from about 20 feet was automatic. you remember that?

well anyway, i see a little oak tree in wilson, insofar as, he doesn’t seek out the limelight with regard to what happens on the court. he’ll do what he’s asked, doesn’t seem interested in getting his shots. you can tell when a guy is fixated on making sure he gets 10 shots a game (flip murray), or 20 (kobe), or even 30 (iverson). and that can sometimes be detrimental. wilson doesn’t do that. he’ll take 15 shots one game, and 7 another game. he doesn’t take shots unless they are in the flow of the offense. and wheeverver wilson is on target, the offense as a whole is on target. so he is really truly a product of his environment.

if we continue to play as a team. and all we have is a collective concience. rather than (saaayyyyyyy……………) a starbury mindset.wilson has the chance to really thrive.

i see the ariza comparisons, because he is best utilized as a slasher. if he can can the spot up jumper, its just gravy. but the difference is ariza played with crazy abandon, and wilson plays very much in control, at his pace.

i like these analyses’s’s’ phillee.

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by stingy d on Dec 31, 2009 11:15 PM EST reply actions

and i know that i talk too much

but wilson’s defense is just ok. nothing to write home about. it’s tough though. our team is really confusing.

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by stingy d on Dec 31, 2009 11:19 PM EST up reply actions

I like the oakley

Anytime I hear his name and have it mentioend with anyone on this team, I get a little excited…granted Ill Will probably wouldn’t call out his teammates mom’s like Oak did with Vince Carter’s mom..although I wish Ill Will would…

And as far as that jumper..aren’t we kind’ve seeing that in DLee in the last 2 years?

thanks for the props.

by philee on Jan 6, 2010 9:45 AM EST up reply actions

no doubt

david lee is absolutely banging the jumper. and as with oakley he is starting with 2 or 3 spots on the floor where he seems very comfortable. particularly about 16-18 feet, ear the corner of the foul line, especially on the rigth (driver’s) side of the basket.

and next year he’ll have 3 or 4 very comfortable spots to pull from. all systems are go with david lee man. right now, we gotta gotta gotta keep this guy. lee puts in the hard work too. i know because it shows. and wilson seems like a hard worker too, and he is getting better every game. seems like a keeper to me, especially if he can get his rebounding contributions to really stack up.

it would be nice if he went to oakley’s charm school, but you can’t have everything.

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by stingy d on Jan 7, 2010 11:23 AM EST up reply actions

from what ive seen

wilson gallo both have a tremendous amount of potential. the other night i was crying while i was thinking how much better we would have been right right right right right nowwwww if we had brook lopez. we have no inside presence. u guys cant be arguing that chandlers doesnt block or gives up the lane. if we have anyone that resembles a center then all these rookies and scrubs dont even summon up the balls to try to catch wilson or gallo with a crossover from the outside becuzz they will know that there actually is somebody with a pulse standing in the paint

by karamjitm9090 on Jan 1, 2010 2:07 PM EST reply actions

I dont understand what you are saying in this post.

"you're the Rod Thorn in my Chris Bosh side."

by Chris Child's Fist on Jan 2, 2010 11:49 AM EST up reply actions

he doesn't even know what he's saying

i guess he’d prefer lopez over gallo

which i wud too obviously..

by schmosterballs92 on Jan 3, 2010 8:54 AM EST up reply actions

well let me ask you this-

if you are a coach and you have 2 athletes in a race, both finishing at the same time, but one guy has perfect form and fundamentals, and the other doesn’t…which guy would you put on your team?

"you're the Rod Thorn in my Chris Bosh side."

by Chris Child's Fist on Jan 3, 2010 10:27 AM EST up reply actions

the one that doesn't have perfect fundamentals.

…cuz the other dude obviously needed perfect fundamentals to finish at the same time as the other dude.

I also take the dude that’s actually on my team.

Dunno what the hell this all applies too…..

..but I have no problem with Gallo over Lopez.

Yea, you can’t teach 7"0 true C’s, which is what Lopez is. But whatever. What’s done is done.

N8 !

by FreeBradshaw on Jan 3, 2010 8:20 PM EST up reply actions

lopez = bosh

BIRD ASS MOTHERFUCKERSBIRD ASS MOTHERFUCKERSBIRD ASS MOTHERFUCKERSBIRD ASS MOTHERFUCKERSBIRD ASS MOTHERFUCKERSBIRD ASS MOTHERFUCKERSBIRD ASS MOTHERFUCKERSBIRD ASS MOTHERFUCKERSBIRD ASS MOTHERFUCKERSBIRD ASS MOTHERFUCKERSBIRD ASS MOTHERFUCKERS

twitter.com/aighttho
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by stingy d on Jan 3, 2010 8:51 PM EST up reply actions

stingy

…you all right you know that?

N8 !

by FreeBradshaw on Jan 4, 2010 11:12 AM EST up reply actions

right

I was asking Karamjitm though, lol.

Lopez has adapted better to the NBA than people thought, but again, Lopez was pretty cleary known to be more NBA ready than Gallinari. Also, Lopez has a pretty low ceiling in terms of how good he will ever be. This is it. He is a decent center and he was drafted right where he should be. Gallinari has a much higher ceiling and if the draft were held today, i would still have chosen Gallinari rather than Brook Lopez.

"you're the Rod Thorn in my Chris Bosh side."

by Chris Child's Fist on Jan 4, 2010 11:12 AM EST up reply actions

I agree...

all good.

First off I’ll repeat that I like Gallo better..a lot better (pause). I would draft Gallo over Lopez 10/10 times

But Lopez…ignoring the fact they passed him up for Gallo, is kinda just the sort of player the Knicks are missing.

Low ceiling…yea, he’s not Andrew Bynum or anything like that (tho he’s pretty overrated…).

But he’ a big dude. He’s an NBA caliber center. Actually..kinda like Brendan Haywood, or there about. Maybe Kendrick Perkins is a good comparison too?

He’s tall. He’s got size. The Knicks are actually a very tall team…but they don’t have that one big guy, cuz basically the whole team is 6"10 and not a ’big 6"10.

All my point is..Brook Lopez, on the Knicks right now (well..WITH Gallo..) would be a whole lot better with Brook Lopez in there.

He’s not a star…but he’s a good piece to the puzzle..an very important piece too

N8 !

by FreeBradshaw on Jan 4, 2010 11:16 AM EST up reply actions

see, but he doesn't strike me as very athletic

he is just a broad body in the lane. You know…the kind of guy who makes the lane look clogged, but the kinda guy in the background of all those posters of dudes dunkin. I’m not sayin Brook Lopez is the new Shawn Bradley… but i also beleive Centers should be shot-blockers. I’m not quite sure Lopez blocks many shots, but I don’t have stats in front of me either.

that being said, I harbor no ill will towards him. But wait until Gallo Hibbert’s him too.

"you're the Rod Thorn in my Chris Bosh side."

by Chris Child's Fist on Jan 4, 2010 11:27 AM EST up reply actions

lol oh dear

i didnt know that i implied that i wanted lopez over gallo. i completely forgot they were a few picks away from each other or sumthing like that. what i was actually getting at was that if we had a guy like lopez then wed be even better in the paint. no subtraction of gallo gents. just an addition of a real center lol

by karamjitm9090 on Jan 5, 2010 6:34 PM EST up reply actions

A real center?

D’antoni doesn’t need a real center and never will. For God’s sakes, he played Diaw at center for 1 whole year, I don’t think it’s going to ever happen, and I’m perfectly happy with that.

by philee on Jan 6, 2010 9:48 AM EST up reply actions

for real!

what’s the difference when we have sg, sf, pf, center all being 6’8" and up? we got brutal size advantages on the wings. if you got heart and smarts, height don’t matter. i’d rather have real deal players players that fit size requirements any day.

twitter.com/aighttho
http://howmuchyouthink.tumblr.com/

by stingy d on Jan 7, 2010 11:27 AM EST up reply actions

ahem

i’d rather have pure basketball players than a bunch of doofus’ that fit (perceived) size requirments

twitter.com/aighttho
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by stingy d on Jan 7, 2010 11:29 AM EST up reply actions

well, of course we would be better with a big center

Lee wouldn’t have to play out of position, and we would enjoy block parties.
Right. They are in short supply though. I really would like to see Darko get like 3-4 games with 30 min bursts to see if he can be that guy. But that ship seems to have sailed long ago. Too bad. I always thought he got a bad rap and COULD actually justify his draft choice at least a little bit. Sure, Detroit should have taken Carmelo Anthony or Chris Bosh, but they were coming off a Finals appearance and they had a very solid backcourt with Rip/Billups. They would have stifled Wade’s growth. But Anthony or bosh would have really fit in with them. Anyways… whatever…

"you're the Rod Thorn in my Chris Bosh side."

by Chris Child's Fist on Jan 6, 2010 2:58 PM EST up reply actions

We have that on the roster

he is called Milicic

It is just we do not like to play Cs

by a hay on Jan 7, 2010 6:26 PM EST up reply actions

I'm not sure Lopez is all that.

He’s putting up points, rebounds, and blocks, but the Nets have won three games this season. He’s shooting 48%, which isn’t that great for a big man. And he has some blocks, but is he really playing good defense? I just keep looking at that record. 3 – 31. And I wonder – how good can this guy be?

by fuhry on Jan 6, 2010 6:21 PM EST up reply actions

he would be a great

8the bird off the bench on a championship contender.

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by stingy d on Jan 7, 2010 11:31 AM EST up reply actions

Gallo is 21

he is putting up similar stats when compared with Nowitzki at the same age, he plays D too, Lopez is a good player on a very bad team. They are harder to judge

I am happy with drafting Gallo, just as I am happy about hill, whom I think is progressing (would like to see him as part of the rotation)

by a hay on Jan 4, 2010 12:35 AM EST up reply actions

bottom line keep will

defense can be taught. athleticism cant.
we truly wholeheartedly believe tht even a decent center who can actually play the zone coverage without losing his man will bring this already young and inexperienced team to a new level. all this talk about bringing in tmac n iverson a while ago is stupid. you need to let them play and learn from their mistakes. idc what dantoni believes. truth is that if gallo td wilson n hill all get to be on the court together itll lead to mistakes but also lead to alot of chemistry

by karamjitm9090 on Jan 1, 2010 2:11 PM EST reply actions

Will,

You had me at 17 rebounds.

Seriously, the rebounding is, I think, what makes Chandler turn the corner from decent to important player. I’m a firm believer that you need guys that can do multiple things well on the court. Will can defend bigs and smalls, he can drive, he can shoot from mid-range, and he can rebound. When he does all those things, he’s a very good player.

by fuhry on Jan 4, 2010 10:28 AM EST reply actions

dare I say...

Pringles version of Matrix on the Knicks?

N8 !

by FreeBradshaw on Jan 4, 2010 11:12 AM EST up reply actions

I agree on the multiple things well on teh court line

nothing bothers me more then 1 dimensional players (unless that 1 demension is defense, then there is a place on teams for them).

by gbaked on Jan 5, 2010 9:45 AM EST up reply actions

jeffries.

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by stingy d on Jan 5, 2010 10:24 AM EST up reply actions

He's not one dimensional though

because there are really three types of defensive skill – perimeter d, paint d, and defensive leadership. Jeffries does all three of those things, which is rare.

by fuhry on Jan 5, 2010 11:03 AM EST up reply actions

semantics.

i honestly think this guy is worhty. that all changes when he blows wide open lay ups that he should just duink….. but still. he’s growing on me.

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by stingy d on Jan 7, 2010 11:33 AM EST up reply actions

thats what i am saying

jeffries 1 dimension is defense, which is why he has a good place on the team.

An opposite player would be someone like Crawford. Who could shoot the ball well in spurts, but was not a great passer and played no D.

I will take JJ on my team 10 times out of 10 (not thinking about contract). Crawford was one of my least fav knicks of all time (I also really disliked Houston when he was here).

by gbaked on Jan 7, 2010 1:17 PM EST up reply actions