Ranking Raymond Felton by the numbers
by gian casimiro on Dec 11, 2010 5:00 PM EST
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There's a lot of credit to be handed out when a team wins 12 of its last 13 games. Most of it rightfully goes to Amar'e Stoudemire who's absolutely Stoudemizing opposing defenses and putting the Knicks on his back to close out games. But he knows he's not the only reason behind the Knicks' winning play and constantly calls his own franchise record-tying scoring streak a "team success".
And that's where Raymond Felton has recently gotten his due from several basketball scribes. When you average 18.6 points and 8.5 assists per game, it's hard to overlook your role in the fifth best offense in the league. So while the numbers are great, and on par with what we assumed they'd be under Mike D'Antoni, let's quickly put them into perspective and see where he ranks among the best in the league this season.
SCORING
When you account for pace - because some teams don't have as many possessions to score when they walk the ball up the floor (like Felton last year, in fact) - Felton is 7th among point guards in scoring. That's damn good considering this is the era of absurd point guard play, but notice how efficiently he's doing it. Adding true shooting percentage into the equation, you see that only three point guards are scoring more points as efficiently as the Knicks' guard right now. Two of them, Steve Nash and Stephen Curry, are known for their pure strokes and one, Deron Williams, is pretty much the best in the game depending on who you ask.
PASSING
First off, stop it, Rajon Rondo. Second, Felton also ranks favorably when it comes to passing (again, accounting for pace), coming in 8th among his peers in assists. And looking at assist rate (the percentage of possessions ending in an assist), aside from the otherworldly talent of John Wall, Felton only trails other point guards we already knew were much better passers.
So after an off-season of if's - "if Felton can average this and that", "if Felton can play the pick and roll with Amare", "if Felton can keep hitting threes" - what the Knicks have is a point guard in the top ten of both scoring and passing at his position.
Admittedly, this is surprising because I'm more pessimistic than most about players living up to expectations. So far though, Raymond Felton is serving as a prime example of someone performing at his best when used the right way.
(Stats provided by DraftExpress and HoopData)
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The truth!
I really like this analysis. Maybe you do another one Landry, who not only alludes traditional metrics but also the advance statistics.
by heino vanderjuice on Dec 11, 2010 5:12 PM EST reply actions
I always thought Ray was a better shooter than his percentage in Charlotte indicated.
I think a lot of it has to do with switching coaches. D’Antoni gives his players the freedom to take shots. No one is going to scream at him if he pulls up for three. With Larry Brown, you take a bad shot and he calls timeout and screams at you.
It gives players much more confidence to shoot the ball, and so that’s why Ray is shooting better this year.
They will be for!
by StarksMiddleFinger on Dec 11, 2010 5:23 PM EST reply actions
I love it
When Kelly Dwyer did his PG rankings in the summer on BDL, and put Felton at like 23rd or something, we all laughed. His numbers thus far have been better than what I imagined (I guessed about 16 and 7), but he’s really tearing it up. Right now, I think it’d be fair to put him around 7-9 in best PGs in the league
Good shit
I didn’t expect him to be averaging what he is either, but I did expect him to be better based on the offensive system.
I think his defense also needs to be added in here. Ray is playing at an all-star level regardless of whether he makes the ASG or not.
One of the best PGs we’ve had here in a while
Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows
The thing I like about Felton is that he knows he's improving and he's making sure he doesn't slow down.
He wants people to respect him, that’s the type of vibe I got from him last night. He wants people to take notice. He was going up against Paul and D-Will in the draft for best PG and as of right now both guys are above him in the league. I think that eats away at him. He wants to prove everyone wrong and you have got to love a guy like that, especially when he plays for your team.
"Dedication To The Don" Most Popular Post Of All Time On P&T. I Am Honored
There are no reliable metrics to measure defense.
I think.
by heino vanderjuice on Dec 11, 2010 5:58 PM EST up reply actions
not even like
points allowed? i’m not saying i know shit from shine-ola… but i just figure felton must stack up pretty well against his biggest opponents as well. certainly he’s better than nash. altho he might not get as many steals as rondo or maybe paul (again, not that i know)…
i’m just imagining felton would rate fairly high defensively as well. so total packagely, he would rank very very high.
/// aighttho.com \/// twitter.com/aighttho \
I agree with this.
Felton is pretty solid defensively.
by heino vanderjuice on Dec 11, 2010 6:23 PM EST up reply actions
Steals
League Leader in Steals – Chris Paul with 3.2. Next person down that plays regularly (not Anthony Carter) is Rondo at 2.4 Felt Tip comes in at 2.1, which is the 8th best among PGs (counting Monta Ellis, which I’m not sure I really want to but there it is). Actually scratch that, it’s tied for 5th best.
Everyone is better than Nash
in defense. However, It is a little know fact and unprovable, and the PHx team will not speak to it, but reasoning and a little basketball IQ can conclude:
Nash must not get in foul trouble. PERIOD.
It would be like Kobe getting in foul trouble or in the Nicks case Stat. All these teams are not the same without the leader, and especially if the backup is not decent.
Nash does play defense, and he is smallish, but his is basketball IQ and court vision is, well, genius. He likely knows what the play is unfolding before the defending team does, but he is simply not going to get in your face and take a foul unless the game is on the line. if you watch him closely, he is almost never out of position, but because he is smallish, when he puts his hand up, it is not high to do much good.
Stat has a similar issue but more raw athleticism and size to over come that fact that he must not get in foul trouble.
BTW: Nice post gian casimiro
whatever dude
you came real close to saying something. regardless of whether nash is smart enough not to commit silly fouls- he can’t stay in front of his man. and regardless of whether felton leads the league in steals or not- he seems to be able to do specifically that. and i would imagine that he has a fairly low fouls per game average.
and what i’m really curious about is how effective he is on defense. i was not interested in whether nash can make up for his lackluster defense with extremely good offense.
i’m not trying to bash nash, he just happens to be the easiest example with regard to making my point. and he is, of course, one of the best (if not THE best) point guards in the game.
and just for kicks- felton for his career averages 2.3 fouls per game. nash averages 1.7
take that however you feel like.
/// aighttho.com \/// twitter.com/aighttho \
Yeah there is
some sites do track what an opponent does against a particular player. For instance, 82 games does opposing PER’s while Berri disciples like Ty of Courtside Analyst measure marginal win scores accouting how a player does on the defensive end.
I never said people haven't tried.
I said there are no reliable metrics. Those two metrics are nebulous and still have a long way to go before they can calculate defense. As for Berri, here’s a quote I think we’ll all enjoy: “[I]t looks like Isiah was making—according to the logic of the NBA’s free agent market—very sound decision.” - From Berri’s “Stumbling on Wins”.
by heino vanderjuice on Dec 12, 2010 2:09 AM EST up reply actions
In Reference to the acquisitions of Marbury, Crawford, Curry and Randolph.
by heino vanderjuice on Dec 12, 2010 2:10 AM EST up reply actions
Im a celtics fan from celtics blog, and in 4 days we play
so i just came here to see what you guys have been doing. I also though raymond felton was a bust, but he really stepped it up for you guys, i havent seen him on defense, but sometimes ill turn the game on and the way the tempo is he actually seems in control. Although the celtics were blessed with rondo at point guard, i still really appreciate other point guards… same way you have to appreciate a good quarterback in football… When a point guard is running the tempo of the game it looks so much more controlled then when the tempo isn’t really controlled.
tell me about it man... i think of bledsoe and others and somehow they lose control of the game
it’s hard to be a pg really. btw is erden available?
Victory goes to the courageous!!
in that case
What are your thoughts on the Walker/House for Nate swap? I know there were more players but that’s what its really come down to. Nate any more under control in Beantown?
by Adam NYC on Dec 12, 2010 10:37 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Rondo is the most overrated player in the league.
He gets all of his assists because his players don’t miss.
by schmosterballs92 on Dec 12, 2010 11:39 AM EST up reply actions
Rondo and Rose are both a bit overrated
Both are very good, but they’re manufactured superstars. They’re deeply flawed, but ESPN sees major market + hero worship which = $$$.
Russell Westbrook is better than either of them and is the fourth-best PG in the game today.
"I feel like this: You can't hate me." -Toney Douglas
i dunno
rondo can’t shoot, but he does everything else extremely well. and even though he’s not a good shooter, he can score. i think westbrook is great, and can get better. but right now he is not better than rondo.
and to schmosterballs- that is not why he gets his assists. the celtics play exceptional team ball, and rondo orchestrates them unbelievably well. if they were more selfish, they would miss more shots, but they don’t care who scores, so the right shot becomes readily apparent. and rondo always seems to make the right play. its not a fluke.
/// aighttho.com \/// twitter.com/aighttho \
lol ok well there’s alot of things i have to settle here.. Erden.. NO WAY!! hes not available, he’s having way to strong of a season for the celtics and hes playing through a shoulder injury. With 3 of our 4 starting centers injury prone we really need him…
then the walker house for nate swap, really bothered me at first, because over at celtics blog theres a joke that doc doesnt play rookies, but its not that he doesnt play rookies, its just that he doesnt play players with no defense. Tony allen and bill walker for example.. both high flyers, but tony allen was shut down defense… bill walker ehh.. a bit more polished on offense. Its just one of doc’s coaching methods.. i mean we lost joe johnson because of it and it sucks. Nate has been playing supurb when he starts im not sure you if you guys have seem the game. but he gets his annual run it down the court and gun a decent three but no body is under the hoop to rebound it but the other team..
Then there is the rondo discussion. which bothers me more then anything. i cant beleive you really just said rondo is overrated. Rondo is the best passer in the league, the most creative, and most on point. Lately he hasnt been himself because of his hamstring and has been on and off the bench, yet still racking up many assists. Look at last year when the celtics were doing horrible. rondo still averaged his assists. and this year he only got better, and ray and peirce are making their shots now. Rondo’s jump shot this year has been average, although his true shooting percentage is 54.0, while the other shooting pg’s you guys are talking about have a true shooting percentage of, Chris paul- 57, derric rose also has a 54.0. He can get to the hoop with any assortment of moves besides only his speed, he is also the best defesive point guard, and the best rebounding point guard in the leauge. He owns oposing point guards on one on one battles, besides 1 game i can really remember were chris paul shut him down, i remember clearly because i was really upset rondo was doing anything… but the next game rondo won. Ever watch rondo control the tempo of a game? ya although i was complimenting raymond felton on it, Rondo does it like something you would see an art show.. its beautiful.
Out the horses mouth
Rondo even said his self that he’s racking up the assists total because his teammates are making shots. If Rondo comes down the court and passes the ball to pierce and pierce creates a shot thats an assist even if all he did was simply give the ball to pierce. Does anyone understand my POINT. Its not an assist if no one scores. Ya give him too much credit for being on a great shooting team.
Yea, the may be the reason he is racking up assists.. but im curious about something else.. the celtics average about 99 points a game, while other teams like the suns, the knicks, san antionio, ect are all averaging more points then us.. so that means that their point guards should be having more assits.. but they dont… and if i were rajon rondo i would want to be humble too, i wouldnt want everyone to think i was cocky. Rajon Rondo is the motor that runs the team.. He’s the reason why were so good. thats what some people dont understand. Ask anyone else from celtics blog…
The Celts need a Rondo because they are a team of spot-up shooters
but the argument is that other PGs could replicate Rondo’s production to a certain extent. Rondo is a great passer and a perfect fit on that team, but his life is also made easy by the effectiveness of his teammates as spot-up shooters. So it’s a worthless argument, and it’s why I don’t like cross-comparisons of players on different teams anyways. Rondo does his job in his specific situation. Nothing else matters.
"I feel like this: You can't hate me." -Toney Douglas
i agree, also think rondo is best pg in nba
rondo is on a team full of great scorers, if they were to have a PG that took shots away from KG, allen, pierce, big baby, etc. it would take away from their offense. rondos passing is absolutely off the charts (as the graph shows). he is the perfect point guard for his team, he can find the open man in almost any given situation. he can read defenses like peyton manning, has pin point accuracy with his passes, and incredible creativity. the fact of the matter is, rondo could probably score 16-18 ppg if put in a different offense, hes shooting 53% from the field. teams know that if he wants he can make one of his sweet behind the back fakes and take it to the rack, but he usually opts to pass the ball. its very rare that he doesnt end up making the correct decision with the ball
Rondo's inability to hit jumpers or FTs eliminates him from the discussion of elite PGs
If he were asked to carry more of the scoring load, he’d be easy to guard, and the strategy of “make him shoot and foul him when he drives” would make him incredibly inefficient. Without other scoring options present, his deficiencies would destroy spacing on offense and make buckets hard to come by. You see this effect to an extent with the Bulls, although Rose is a better scorer than Rondo by quite a bit.
Rondo’s TS% this season is 54.0, which is low considering how little responsibility he has as a scorer. Rose, as a #1 option, is at 54.4. Deron Williams, also a #1 option, is at 59.9, which is just outstanding.
"I feel like this: You can't hate me." -Toney Douglas
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