You Should and Should Not be Angry: Two Draft Perspectives.
Because I am a New York Knickerbockers fan, last night was distressing for me. I waited about three hours for the first round to end so I could count in my head all the "slipped" prospects we could grab. Around pick 27 or 28 I started thinking "Maybe Alabi, Hobson, Armon Johnson, etc. are realistic!" Because, you know, they're all potential first round prospects.
But that's the fickle thing about the draft. The first round is tremendously important, while the second round is not. Although there are guys running around in professional basketball jerseys who make twelve million dollars per year for playing in various "arenas" across the country (see what I did there?), who would beg to differ. However, in about 90% of cases, second round picks are really just guys who are going to play for your Summer League squad, challenge for a roster spot, and flip out if they get on (deservedly so).
The Knicks, amazingly differently from the past few years, are not interested in players who will challenge for a roster spot. They are interested in players who will make the roster, develop into role/bench players, and add to a winning culture in Manhattan.
That's the other fickle thing about the draft. We had two picks in the second round, seemingly wasted them, and we are 80 or 90% likely to be in the same place we were 24 hours ago.
Who really expected that much more?
This morning, I woke up to a text from a friend who said "Man, nice pick with Rautins. He's money!"
This proves that none of us knows shit.
The bad news: Donnie Walsh & co., relative to every other general manager, every draft analyst, and every common man (whose agendas are admittedly shaped by the first two), entirely overestimated not one, but both of our draft picks. Andy Rautins was not expected to be drafted any earlier than about pick #50, so the 12 spot reach for him is not exactly egregious. Strawberry Fields (sic) on the other hand, was not valued as a draft prospect in almost any circle, and for this reason among others (he's from Stanford), he should be stared at with brows raised.
The good news: They were picks #38 and #39. While some of you may be angry because a few potential first rounders fell and we subsequently missed out on them, think about it this way:
PG: CHRIS PAUL
SG: D-WADE
SF: LaBRON
PF: CHRIS BOSH
C: Solomon Alabi?
These are fellows who, given a chance, could thrive as role players, bench players. While I may be wrong, none of these guys were ever going to start for us or for any other team. They're simply missing a piece of the puzzle that cannot be taught. If that weren't the case, one of the other 29 teams would have picked them up. Or, to be original, we would have. Gian brings up a good point, that Draftexpress.com is a great resource. They scout well, and are usually on the mark. But the fact of the matter remains that NBA scouts are NBA scouts because they are better than we are at figuring players out.
After our picks, the Pacers also passed on Varnado. The Lakers, Bucks, Wolves and Heat all passed on Gani Lawal (who I really wanted the Knicks to take). This is a science that we do not quite understand, and therefore cannot properly evaluate until these guys suit up and start dribbling, cutting and jumping passing lanes.
All that having been said:
Fuck.
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close enough
"The outfield is deep and playing him straight-away, and the infield is the same, except first, second, third, and short are playing him to pull."
-Mike Shannon
by tehzachatak on Jun 25, 2010 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
as close enough as 3000 miles can be
but true.
KEEP LEE!!!
by FreeBradshaw on Jun 25, 2010 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm starting to see it this way too.
In the heat of the moment, we were all thirsting for big shotblockers (pause) and Alabi and Varnado were available. Personally, I’ve never been that sold on Alabi, but I have been high on Varnado for a while. So I got excited, and then got brought down to earth because those guys didn’t seem, from what I read, like they were going to be drafted at all.
BUT, even if that were true, if you try to sign a non-draftee, you might get trumped by another team. So there’s no guarantee you’re going to be able to sign them if they go undrafted. So the Knicks really valued these guys for their skills (including defense) and more importantly, understanding of team basketball and maturity, so now, no one else can sign them unless the Knicks renounce them. And Zoubek is still unsigned – and he said he wanted to come to the Knicks.
Plus, the Knicks seem to have nabbed Jerome Jordan, and that makes me feel a lot better about everything because at least they got a really big dude who has a chance of contributing. I actually think this guy’s come an enormous distance in a very short time. It’s potentially high-reward. Probably as good a risk as Alabi anyway.
It looks like the Knicks are trying to put together a team of intelligent team players that know what they can do on the court and know how to play with others. I like that approach. I’m starting to look forward to summer league to see what these guys can do.
I think it was Tommy D who made a good point – what’s the difference between Gordon Heyward and Landry Fields? Is it that huge? Heyward almost won the NCAA championship as a huge underdog. Fields’ team was not as strong. We’ll have to wait and see.
yea and if guys go undrafted
they can go and pick up with whoever they feel like playing for (assuming they want said player). so, if you’re not getting a garunteed contract anyway, it’s almost better.
twitter.com/aighttho
http://aightthen.tumblr.com/
Yeah, Its just beyond difficult to gauge who is gonna pick who
I mean, sure Rautins and Fields were not expected to be drafted…but that doesn’t mean they would not have been, is NY hadn’t pulled the trigger. Sure there are plenty of sights out there that do their own research, and I am sure NBA teams see what they have to say. But there is a reason why each team has its own scouts. Everyoen has their own strategy and evaluation system too.
Hey, who even heard of Tony Parker when the Spurs drafted him? Guys like Monta Ellis, Rashard Lewis, Gilbert Arenas, Carlos Boozer, and on and on… man, those were 2nd rounders and like you said, expectations are nonexistent for those late draft picks.
Those guys happen to have become stars in the league. It makes those GMs or whomever made the picks look like geniuses and the evaluation systems who rated these guys low or not at all look flawed.
"you're the Rod Thorn in my Chris Bosh side."
by Chris Child's Fist on Jun 25, 2010 1:01 PM EDT reply actions
the only reason ellis went 2nd round is because isiah was dumb as shit and he's a undersized 2
In Donnie We Trust!
by IB on Jun 25, 2010 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks for that, I guess that renders my point moot.
"you're the Rod Thorn in my Chris Bosh side."
by Chris Child's Fist on Jun 25, 2010 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Knick fan William Goldman
who wrote The Princess Bride famously said about Hollywood: “Nobody knows anything.” Is the NBA really so different?
I was upset about last night’s picks because I spent countless hours studying the likely picks and picking favorites and it’s now clear that was a ridiculous waste of time. But I’m not really upset about the picks themselves just because draft “experts” didn’t see them coming. If you look back at their prior predictions, it becomes clear that those guys really don’t know anything.
The Jordan Hill pick was so upsetting last year precisely because it was so gutless. He was picked because nobody would blame them for picking Hill in the lottery but they would have been mocked for picking Ty Lawson there. But Lawson was the better player and it would have been great if our GM just said F’ the “experts”. (I hate to say it, but Isiah was good at that.)
So I’m just going to look at the players based on what I can see, and I’m not too displeased. Though I am tired of every guy we pick up being a small forward.
"Dishin' and swishin' in transition"
by Serious Garbage Time on Jun 25, 2010 1:08 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
yea, i could get behind landry fields, no homo
if he was clearly a power forward, or clearly a center, or clearly a point guard. but man oh man, we do not need a (s)wing player.
twitter.com/aighttho
http://aightthen.tumblr.com/
dot dot dot
i’m reserving judgement. but man, do i have opinions.
twitter.com/aighttho
http://aightthen.tumblr.com/
I had that though as well...
They may have something in the works.
"Umm - it was - you know - umm - a good game. You know."-
Patrick Ewing (my Knick Hero)
good write up osborn
you seem to stay level-headed through most crises, and that’s respectable. Tough to have a problem with smart, team-oriented players who excel in their particular niches. We’ll see if they make it.
"Game Knows Game"
i usually dont agree wth everything the analyst have to say about the knicks but this time i believe they got it right
u guys might be willing to soften up on our draft picks but i wont. worst choices ive ever seen the knicks make since sweetney or even weis.
In Donnie We Trust!
I beg to differ
Mardy Collins and Renaldo Balkman left me completely flabbergasted. The only highlight moment of Collins’ career was the fight/bitch-slap fest with Carmelo Anthony. And correct me if I’m wrong but we could have had Rondo instead either one of those guys.
Why do i look at Popivich with a arm around a player talking with 2 minutes left, and get jealous?
by semsemma on Mar 10, 2010 8:00 PM PST
by Rohpuri on Jun 25, 2010 2:19 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Rondo was drafted before Collins
"Dishin' and swishin' in transition"
by Serious Garbage Time on Jun 25, 2010 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions
That kills me inside everytime
Rondo would be our team leader right now!
"Umm - it was - you know - umm - a good game. You know."-
Patrick Ewing (my Knick Hero)
just so you guys know...
rondo would not be as highly regarded if he had been playing for the knicks. behind marbury et al. zach randolph would have still been a horrendous ball-stopper. our big man for the millenium would still be struggling with off-court issues. mike d’antoni would struggle to give minutes to an unproven guy that can’t hit a wide open 15 foot jumper. and the list goes on and on.
every player that has ever made it to the nba, needs such a unique situation to be a success. and to be one of the biggest successes among them, the confluence of events and scenarios that make it happen, are nearly impossible to effectively produce, much less predict.
besides, envy is sin.
twitter.com/aighttho
http://aightthen.tumblr.com/
furthermore
rondo does not cut his finger nails. filthy.
twitter.com/aighttho
http://aightthen.tumblr.com/
no u are absolutely correct, rondo was still available. same goes for ellis
In Donnie We Trust!
by IB on Jun 25, 2010 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions
wait i might be wrong i'll check
In Donnie We Trust!
by IB on Jun 25, 2010 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions
I almost completely agree.
But, Weiss is the worst ever! Did he ever play for any NBA team?
Well lets be hypothetical
Does this mean they trade chan for a true SG now. We obviously have some swingmen and a center. You gotta figure there is some masterplan going into place. If donny wanted armon that bad, they wouldve bought up right?
masterplan?
if there is one, it did not really involve a pair of second rounders.
twitter.com/aighttho
http://aightthen.tumblr.com/
And if it did...
we have bigger problems to worry about than we’re talking about now. lol
Not for nothing, but having the same picture of Landry Fields on this thread and the recap thread is seriously fucking with me.
I keep thinking this is the recap thread.
"you're the Rod Thorn in my Chris Bosh side."
by Chris Child's Fist on Jun 25, 2010 2:43 PM EDT reply actions
i still can't get past
having a landry fields pciture at all.
twitter.com/aighttho
http://aightthen.tumblr.com/
That partic picture looks a lot like Eric Devendorf to me.
NOT a good thing..
"you're the Rod Thorn in my Chris Bosh side."
by Chris Child's Fist on Jun 25, 2010 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Looks like Channing Frye to me
Or President Obama
"Dishin' and swishin' in transition"
by Serious Garbage Time on Jun 25, 2010 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks
But I’d rather go with:
Strawberry Fields
or
Dirty Landry
"Dishin' and swishin' in transition"
by Serious Garbage Time on Jun 25, 2010 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Osborn made a good point.
In fact Donnie may know something afterall. Consider this, We have 10 roster spots to fill, and while there were other guys available we drafted two guys who fit our system. Sometimes the player that best fit the system is better immediately than the best player or the guy with the best upside. While Varnado was available he probably needs 2 years in the weight room to be able to contribute. The guy is like 210 lbs, I was worried if we took him he would get seriously pushed around inside, which would negate his shot blocking ability. Look Rautins and Fields are not going to be All-Stars in all likelihood, but these guys fit, they are going to be able to hit open shots created by the uptempo style, and both guys will give a good effort on defense, and Fields can rebound and I have been told that rebounding is a skill that transfers regardless of a players athleticism. Then We traded for Jerome Jordan, and if he can contest shots in the paint and do some work on the boards then he helps improve our defense and rebounding. Now consider that we are probably talking about guys who are gonna come off the bench and play like 10-15; 20 mins. a night at most. If they can do the things I just listed, none of which is not in their present ability level, then I say that we will have had a good draft.
by Robert Currence on Jun 25, 2010 3:08 PM EDT reply actions
right on robert
someone earlier used rondo as an example, saying that the main reason he was such a success was because of the situation that he fell into in boston. Rautins and even landry skillz seem to fit the situation currently in NY within the offense, so perhaps that will maximize their potential fairly early. If they make the squad, they’re gonna get minutes too.
"Game Knows Game"
by Ray Smuckles on Jun 25, 2010 7:35 PM EDT up reply actions
their skill set seems ideal
I think we should hold off on the minutes talk tho
What did the 5 fingers say to the face?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7CBwX1891A
HaHaHaHa!
by Lord Smackington on Jun 25, 2010 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions
we're sailing with a skeleton crew man
and they don’t come off as project players. I could see them logging 8-10 per game, especially if we’re getting blown out by golden state :(
"Game Knows Game"
by Ray Smuckles on Jun 25, 2010 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions
we have to carry at least 12 players
so the roster is getting filled no matter what. I’m just saying all the heavy minutes go to the starters and after that no one knows what’s gonna happen. I don’t even think Dantoni has given it thought yet, so it’s a little pre emptive.
They may both get 8-10 mins or maybe one will get 10 mins and the other will be crocheting a pair of short shorts on the end of the bench. We don’t know.
What did the 5 fingers say to the face?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7CBwX1891A
HaHaHaHa!
by Lord Smackington on Jun 26, 2010 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions
alirght fine
i wont be SURPRISED if they get some minutes. but they aren’t project players, so that works in their favor. Certainly starter heavy, it is dantoni after all
"Game Knows Game"
by Ray Smuckles on Jun 26, 2010 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Rautins, Landry... C'mon!
I’m sorry but Rautins shoots well.. against college kids!! He’ll be playing against pros now. And, he’ll have to play defense against guys who are faster the he is. He may have great basketball knowledge, but that can only carry you so far. At the best, he’ll be a pass first point guard, who can hit open shots. If he hits with any consistancy, defenders will be all over him. Landry is just another swing or wing guy. They are a dime a dozen in this league. NOBODY even knew who he was! There was too much talent left to come away with these two guys! Big mistake Walsh and D’Antoni!!!
So what you are saying is Rautins projects to be a pass-first PG who can hit open shots?
I guess i can see why the Knicks drafted him. You know, since, well, that is the very definition of the kind of point guard we are looking for.
Its all clear to me now!
"you're the Rod Thorn in my Chris Bosh side."
by Chris Child's Fist on Jun 25, 2010 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions
oh really.
The only thing clear, is Walsh and D’Antoni have your unwavering support! That’s cool, but in terms of basketball, they are not doing a good job in my book. I gave Walsh the benefit of the doubt until this sorry ass draft. I really hope these guys pan out and I have to eat my words, but I doubt it.
I hope your book has more than 2 pages on it
"you're the Rod Thorn in my Chris Bosh side."
by Chris Child's Fist on Jun 27, 2010 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions
so I guess you'd rather get a guy who can't shoot out of college?
what are they supposed to do? Or do you want a foreigner like Gallo who’s shooting well against Euro pros?
KEEP LEE!!!
by FreeBradshaw on Jun 25, 2010 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions
No.
they are supposed to take the best talent available. Just didn’t think Landry or Rautins was the best available.
well hopefully when you get you're next NBA job
you’ll be able to scout players and figure that out.
For the Knicks system, what makes you think they didn’t feel that Rautins and Fields were the best available?
KEEP LEE!!!
by FreeBradshaw on Jun 27, 2010 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions
wait... you mean they would have to guard NBA guys??
Wonder if any of these pros ever played in college….
Nahh…
"you're the Rod Thorn in my Chris Bosh side."
by Chris Child's Fist on Jun 25, 2010 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions
You are complaining about getting a pass first pg who can hit open shots in the 2nd round? What do you really expect?
I think he will be better then what you are saying. But if the worst case scenario is a guy with great court vision who can hit open shots, and you get him in the second round? Be happy with that.
and
the dude is not really going to be asked to paly more than 15-20 minutes a game. chill out, bitches.
twitter.com/aighttho
http://aightthen.tumblr.com/
exactly...
bitching about filling needs with 2nd round picks. Since the fuck when does that happen?
KEEP LEE!!!
by FreeBradshaw on Jun 25, 2010 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions
kinda funny that a ton of people are complaining abotu not getting a pass first PG
who can shoot, and a C and defensive minded players…yet, Rautins is a defensive minded player that could possibly be a PG, and can obviously shoot.
And Jerome Jordan is a center.
Did they not meet the needs with the draft, or did they not just draft those who we expected them to draft?
KEEP LEE!!!
by FreeBradshaw on Jun 25, 2010 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions
just because there defensive minded doesnt mean he has the tools to be a defensive presence in the nba. and mda is not known for teaching defense which really could mean he might be worse than we thought
In Donnie We Trust!
by IB on Jun 25, 2010 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions
right..it doesn't.
but doesn’t that make sense to draft a defensive minded player if Pringles ain’t gonna teach defense?
Why would you draft a kid who has no clue on how to play defense if he’s not gonna get taught?
And yea, Jordan’s 7"ft tall, shot blocker in college, and 7"6 wingspan. So he’s got the tools…..
KEEP LEE!!!
by FreeBradshaw on Jun 25, 2010 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions
you have a habit of very long titles for your comments...
you dig that boldface, huh. Sorta announces your presence with authority
"you're the Rod Thorn in my Chris Bosh side."
by Chris Child's Fist on Jun 25, 2010 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Rautins is 6"5 with a 6"7 wingspan too
so he’s got the physical tools.
KEEP LEE!!!
by FreeBradshaw on Jun 25, 2010 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions
You are worrying alot about a guy who will
probably play 10-15 minutes off the bench, if at all depending who we get in FA or through trades. No one Knows what the kid will do until he gets on the court. What we know is he has good range on his jumpshot and he can find open men and pass them the ball. For now that is good enough for me. Let’s see him play games first before we trash him.
by Robert Currence on Jun 25, 2010 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Umm I have see Rautins routinely hit shots
2-3 feet behind the NBA line and not look like he was working to do it. The guy can shoot, and more effectively the guy can shoot from range off the dribble. And he has a quick release Rautins will get his shot off, he played in one of the toughest conferences in college basketball and he got his shot off. I think the least of our worries about Rautins.
Lastly,
“At the best, he’ll be a pass first point guard, who can hit open shots.” And my question is what is so bad about that?
by Robert Currence on Jun 25, 2010 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Johnny Rautins?
I love the Sex Pistols.
"Dishin' and swishin' in transition"
by Serious Garbage Time on Jun 25, 2010 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions
And hey
When you can get “Mr. President” and “Sex Pistol” in the second round, that’s a damn good draft!
And if Magette passes his physical and we get Jerome “Michael” Jordan…..WIN
Sex Pistol is kinda decent
"you're the Rod Thorn in my Chris Bosh side."
by Chris Child's Fist on Jun 25, 2010 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions
ehhh.. i dont think that fits him.
Toney does what the douglas do. And no one can do what he does b/c doing it without being Toney Douglas just doesnt make it do what it do
honestly.. i think we should wait on the nicknames until these guy show
something on the court. nicknames have a lot to do wih their style of play no?
Toney does what the douglas do. And no one can do what he does b/c doing it without being Toney Douglas just doesnt make it do what it do
Hes a panty dropper, and he is a terrific shooter
So, well, it does kinda fit…. technically
"you're the Rod Thorn in my Chris Bosh side."
by Chris Child's Fist on Jun 26, 2010 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions
just wanted to add to the ripping your getting
but rautins shoots well..agains college kids!…..no shyt
i dont think it was possible for him to shoot against anyone else
Toney does what the douglas do. And no one can do what he does b/c doing it without being Toney Douglas just doesnt make it do what it do
a lot of those college kids
care more about defense than NBA players do. Just sayin. It’s mostly the big scorers that come to the NBA. Defense has been underrated in the draft for so long that the NBA is full of guys that don’t play D.
“He won’t be able to do that against NBA defenders” is one of the things that I find turns out to be not true a lot of the time. Also, in college, his teammates are college kids too. Playing with NBA guys means there’s more opportunities for open shots when the defense is keying on someone else.
I love Fields
I’m a lifelong Knick fan who lives out west so I get to see a lot of Pac 10 basketball and Fields was far and away the best player in this league.Admittedly the Pac 10 had a down year but it is still a major conference. I thought Fields was superior to Quincy Poindexter who went in the first round. Fields is a smart(Stanford), very athletic, and a great scorer. I like the pick and I think he will get major minutes.
Fields,,,
Averaged 22 and 9 and was the teams leading shot blocker at small forward, He is an exceptional offensive rebounder. He can also play a guard position. He led the Pac-10 in scoring and was second in rebounding. He’s got decent 3 pt range and shot around 50% from the field and took about 10 foul shots per game. Against good college players he is almost unstoppable.. He looks and plays somewhat like Adrian Dantly. He is also an Academic all american and first team Pac-10.
Thanks bobzilla
I am already sold give the dude a chance to see what he can do. Simply because he wasn’t being jocked by certain people does not mean the kid can’t play.
by Robert Currence on Jun 26, 2010 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions
plus
I absolutely love high-rebounding threes – maybe not as starters but as bench players. The Knicks got obliterated on the offensive glass a lot this season and maybe this guy can help put a stop to that with some bench minutes.
Hey, a big reason the Lakers won the title this year is because Kobe can beast on the boards when his team needs him to. It’s always been an underestimated part of his game. Magic Johnson could do it too… so can LeBron. NOT comparing Fields to those guys but sometimes you need rebounding from the small forward spot and Fields brings it and also has a bit of scoring ability. His rebounding numbers make me OK with the pick.
Awesome point
And love the reference to Kobe. Not as comparison, but as a reference to situational awareness and team play. So Kobe wasn’t lighting up the net…yeah, he got his points, but on at an about 33% clip. But instead, he goes out the last two games, works hard and reals in 4 off boards 13 def avg, draws fouls gets to the line hitting about 10 per and across the way, KG is busy pulling down a whopping 4-5 reb’s per, no offensive reb’s. It wasn’t pretty, but it was impressive, and along with Gasol and Artest filling their rolls nicely, it’s why the Lakers won. Artest totally pulled up the scoring slack. Teams like this find ways to win.

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