**Update Alert**. Version 1.1 with updates from v1.0
No, not that KMart...
The NBA lockout is still weeks (months, years) from resolution; and there is no guarantee that the new CBA will include an amnesty clause.
But in the event the lockout is resolved this decade and a new CBA is signed which includes a One Time Amnesty Clause; here is my FPG (First Pass Guesstimation) on who, if any, each team may choose to amnestize and who I would consider pursuing if my name ended in Dolan…
Atlanta – Marvin Williams. Disappointing, but not horrible pro; possible for low dollar/low risk
Boston – Jermaine O’Neal. Unless Rasheed’s money stays on the books; but either way… Hell No.
Charlotte – DeSagana Diop. Has produced a little in the past. Not really worth it anymore. Darkhorse could be Charlotte deciding to be rid of Maggette’s $21MM money ($10.2 & $10.9 over the nex 2years)
Chicago – No Amnesty? Possibly Korver ; Deng makes too much money but amnestying him makes little sense
Cleveland – Baron Davis. I don’t think he’d be worth the bidding war and headache to sign him
Dallas – Brendan Haywood. Contract length is long, but I can’t see Cuban risk losing both Centers. If available I’d go after Haywood
Denver – Al Harrington or Chris Anderson. I’d say don’t go after either. I like Harrington as a 6th man; but don’t see him coming back. Don’t go after Anderson at all, hard worker but very limited skills, old for his years, deteriorating basketball health; really, stay away from this “frown turned upside down” sad story turned good player.
Detroit – Rip Hamilton; appears to be a foregone conclusion. Very good low dollar/low duration addition
Golden State – Andris Biedrins; though could GSW have true buyer’s remorse towards David Lee? Would not bother going after Biedrins. A big who can no longer stay healthy and who’s game flushed away with lost confidence will not re-discover health nor skill in the Big Apple
Houston – No Amnesty? Possibly Hill or Thabeet; but not sure dumping either does much
Indiana – Dahntay Jones. Great defensive addition, low dollar; would make him a priority
LAC – No Amnesty? Don’t really have anyone they have to get rid of
LAL – Luke Walton. World B. Free v2.0’s contract is 1yr longer and a $1mm/yr more; but doesn’t even get on the court anymore. Would not pursue
Memphis – Dark horse guess but Rudy Gay; Memphis’ cap is excellent but the owner is also a major cost cutting hawk. If he can’t trade Gay immediately he may sacrifice Gay for Zach & Gasol. Consider going after Gay; but can he play SG and is it worth the bidding war to get him
Miami – No Amnesty? Only exception is if they decide Miller’s non-reliability is not worth four more years
Milwaukee – Drew Gooden. Don’t bother, his “underrated-ness” is way overrated
New Jersey – Travis Outlaw. Horribly overpriced role player. Excellent addition if low dollar/low duration
New York – Renaldo Balkman. He’s harder to be rid of than Dracula in the old “Hammer” films of the 60’s
OKC – No Amnesty? Any chance they could amnesty Sam Presti?
Hidayet Turkoglu. Gilbert Arenas. Initially thought Hedo could be an option (who's career is circling the drain faster?) but if it is Arenas' face stapled to the front of the amnesty... that kind of says it all. Either way, wouldn’t bother with either
Phiadelphia – No Amnesty? Possibly Brand who is big dollar, but amnestying him does not make much sense
Phoenix – Josh Childress. If it was Warrick I’d go after him; wouldn’t bother with Childress
Portland – No Amnesty? Would the Blazers really have the ball-up sweatsocks to cut loose Brandon Roy? I still have to see it to believe it
Sacramento – No Amnesty? Possibly John Salmons, money is not horrible but duration is bad. Is he worth keeping? Possibly pursue but not sure how much value you’d get
San Antonio – No Amnesty? Possibly Richard Jefferson, but they may have turned a corner with him. If he is amnestied I wouldn’t bother; bad choice to bring off the bench
Toronto – Linas Kleiza. Possibly amnesty no one; though Kleiza with three more years may have disappointed. Would not go after this player, bad fit
Utah – Mehmet Okur. If his health is not there; but if he’s amnestied with only 1year left, do not pursue him, you’ll be inheriting his injuries too
Washington – Rashard Lewis. The poster child of a player getting way too much money that his production and maturity to support. As a low dollar / low risk player he may be worth pursuing; even though he is a 32yr old 6’10” SF… meaning he’s a shooter but no rebounding. Would he be hungry for end of career redemption in the big apple
2011 Amnesty Shopping List includes
Based on the guesstimated list above, if it all came true… but who are we kidding of course it will come true!!!... or not… here would be my priority shopping list
Brendan Haywood (Still doubt he’ll be on the market)
Rip Hamilton (Short term get on the cheap; don’t overspend)
Travis Outlaw or Dahntay Jones (pursue Outlaw first; probably not both)
Possibly Rashard Lewis (Possibly)
Most of the others either are not the right fit or are primarily starters that I realistically doubt they would adjust to playing off the bench (you have to factor in attitude and desire). Plus the traditional free agents will also be available to consider.
As things come further into focus version 2 will be published