New York Knicks Breakdown: Knicks Have Too Many Holes for Postseason Success

After a shaky start to the Carmelo Anthony era, the Knicks have begun to turn things around, carrying a seven-game winning streak down the stretch of the season. This comes on the heels of a nine-loss-in-ten-games stretch preceding the current winning streak.

But which Knicks will we see in the playoffs? The winning Knicks? The losing Knicks? Something in between? Let’s examine New York’s 97-92 Wednesday victory over a respectable Sixers team to examine what lies in store.

Good Knicks:

The Knicks run much more isolations with their current incarnation than they did pre-’Melo, and with good effect. Against the Sixers the Knicks ran 13 isolations for Amar’e Stoudemire (mainly from the left elbow) and generated 17 points, a good ratio.

With Elton Brand and Spencer Hawes far too slow to contest him on the perimeter, Stoudemire had free reign to shoot unpreserved jumpers to his heart’s content. When the Sixers did try to contest, he had the speed to create offense off the dribble. Finally, the threat of Stoudemire isolating opened up passing lanes to open teammates. Amar’e has been much more unselfish than in years past, and while he doesn’t have great vision, he registered seven assists.

Also, the Knicks ran 11 isolations for Anthony, scoring 14 points on those possessions despite being matched with a talented defensive counterpart in Andre Iguodala. Anthony played a bit farther out on the perimeter against the Sixers than he did as a Nugget, where he mostly operated in the mid-post. But tricky inside-out dribbles, the fantastic threat to get to the basket, and flawless jump shot mechanics eviscerated Iguoldala’s defense from the outside.

Carmelo also used a pair of pindown threes plus a dribble-pitch jumper from the left wing to give the Knicks breathing room to start the second half, ballooning an eight-point halftime lead to 14 in a few minutes.

Also, while ‘Melo is slow to recognize open teammates, he’s an excellent passer, beautifully threading the ball through cracks to open teammates, as he did on one first quarter screen/roll to Sheldon Williams for a dunk.

No surprise, the Knicks have a tremendous amount of firepower with Carmelo and Stoudemire on the floor at the same time.

Stoudemire also plays more energetic defense than he ever did in Phoenix, with several well-timed rotations and adequate close outs. He blocked three shots in total, and came up with a key deflection on a Thaddeus Young drive late in the fourth quarter.

When the Knicks ran their strong-side dribble-pitch, weak-side double curl, it resulted in a made foul line jumper for Landry Fields and a successful isolation for Stoudemire.

Twice, Knicks guards were posted by Elton Brand. The first occasions saw Anthony Carter force a Brand missed turnaround, and a second saw Chauncey Billups poke away Brand’s dribble negating the mismatch.

Carter also ripped Brand from the high post on one sequence, twice stopped the Sixers in transition, and supplied decent ball pressure for the duration. He played good positional defense, moved the ball, and even knocked down a three.

Jared Jeffries was directly attacked four times on defense, only allowing four points. He’s an alert help defender though and was able to grab or knock out four offensive rebounds.

Landry Fields fought through screens and closed out well.

Bill Walker and Derrick Brown each made precise defensive rotations leading to highlight blocks.

Shawne Williams stretched the floor by making two of his four three-pointers.

The Knicks seldom made mistakes with the ball, committing only nine turnovers for the duration.

The Knicks like to crash the offensive boards. Thanks to that, plus some fortuitous bounces, they secured 15 retreivals of their own missed shots.

The Knicks went under most Sixers screens allowing Philadelphia to destroy themselves via jump shooting suicide.

After the Knicks wasted a huge lead, Toney Douglas showed his moxie by knocking down a key triple plus four free throws to save the game.

Likewise, Carmelo Anthony was able to isolate and hit a humongous triple over Iguodala in the game’s final seconds.

On the whole, the Knicks play with unselfishness and moxie on offense and deserve credit for making impressive shots after the Sixers took the lead.

Bad Knicks:

The Knicks run far fewer high screen/rolls than they did to start the season. In the game at hand, only 21 possessions ended on screen/rolls, 11 from the top, 10 from the wing. Whereas the Knicks were a potent screen/roll team with Raymond Felton running the show, Chauncey Billups, Toney Douglas, and Carmelo Anthony aren’t as comfortable running screen/rolls. As a result, the Knicks screen/roll offense was only average, generating nine points on both their high screen/rolls and their wing screen/rolls, for a pedestrian 18 points in 21 possessions.

When Douglas ran screen/rolls, the Knicks only generated four points in eight possessions. Douglas had trouble penetrating and was often strung on the screens, and he’s more concerned with pulling up for threes than anything else. Likewise, ‘Melo had trouble using the screens, generating only four points on six possessions, again, mainly because he was unable to turn the corner and either settled for step-back jumpers or kicked it out to semi-contested three-point shooters.

Surprisingly to me, Billups was the only Knick to have appreciable screen/roll success, generating eight points on five possessions, mostly because Billups was better able to make passes to players inside the perimeter. One wing screen/roll was trapped, leading to a pass to Stoudemire on to ‘Melo for a three, while a high screen/roll led to a pass to Jeffries at the basket leading to a foul and a free throw.

While tweaking the offense to a more isolation-oriented offense allows Anthony to thrive, and Stoudemire to remain successful, it hurts Landry Fields, who needs precise ball movement and on-time passing to be an offensive contributor. Several times he opened up on cuts and didn’t receive the ball, and he was able to beat Jodie Meeks baseline for a layup, but he was largely MIA—3-5 FG.

Anthony forced at least a half dozen shots, though he did make at least two of them. Billups also forced a pair of shots and was disengaged on defense.

‘Melo was also guilty of a handful of disadvantageous switches forcing the Knicks defense to radically compromise. Fortunately, the Knicks were bailed out by Philadelphia’s inability to shoot from the outside.

Toney Douglas has many admirable characteristics, but he can’t run an offense, is often out of position on defense, and is trigger happy with the ball. The Knicks offense stagnated with Billups out late.

If Anthony Carter and Jared Jeffries are on the court together, the Knicks suffer from a lack of spacing.

Bill Walker, Derrick Brown, and both Williams’ are awful defenders, while Sheldon Williams is also a poor rebounder, has cement for hands, and can’t finish. The less he plays, the better.

While ’Melo is attempting to play aggressive defense, he’s often overaggressive and commits silly mistakes.

The Knicks suffered from awful court balance which allowed the Sixers to come back and take the lead. On several possessions, Toney Douglas was supposed to drop back and balance the court and never did, allowing run outs. Stoudemire was also guilty of not running hard twice, allowing a pair of fast break baskets.

Finally, on a Stoudemire elbow jumper, ‘Melo was at the opposite elbow and the farthest non-shooter from the basket. Instead of balancing the court, he went for an offensive rebound and came up empty, leaving nobody back to stop a run out. These careless spacing mistakes will doom the Knicks in the postseason.

With the exception of Jeffries and Ronnie Turiaf, the Knicks don’t box out hoping to simply jump their way to defensive rebounds. Against the athletic Sixers, the Knicks ended up yielding 17 offensive rebounds.

Against better shooting teams, the Knicks penchant for going under screens and switching on the perimeter will come back to bite them. Also, most opponents won’t shoot 14-22 from the free throw line and 2-18 from three.

The Verdict

The Knicks are guaranteed to play either the Miami Heat or the Boston Celtics in the first round of the postseason. While the Knicks have the firepower to win a game or two against a Celtics team that is suffering from a loss of identity, it’s difficult to envision them making fewer critical mistakes than a wise Celtics team.

Meanwhile, the Heat are beginning to peak and have the defense to lock the Knicks down in a non-competitive series.

Mike D’Antoni still needs to find a way to create a five-man offense that gives ‘Melo enough freedom while also allows other players to thrive. The Knicks also need depth at every position, a third starter-caliber player who can create his own offense, and a higher commitment to defensive details. Adding defensive-minded players who can also contribute on offense would also be a plus.

If Anthony can improve his unselfishness and defensive energy next season at the same degree Stoudemire has, then the Knicks will have some hope. However, even Stoudemire is a flawed defender, while D’Antoni and ‘Melo have never been sticklers for defensive discipline. As such, it’s difficult to envision championship-level success with the two stars as cornerstones.

That being said, what the Knicks have now is infinitely better than what they’ve had over the past decade, and they may field one of the best six or seven seeds to come out of the East in an eternity. With a more well-rounded roster, there’s enough talent to win a playoff series or perhaps two in any given year.

As such, this season is a success as the Knicks will be playing meaningful postseason games for the first time in an eternity and have the room to improve going forward—a fact that, regardless of the team’s flaws, should be celebrated even should they fall flat during the NBA’s second season.