New Statistic Idea- "PC"
by mindfeck on Jun 17, 2011 1:05 PM EDT
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PrintI was thinking about how guys like Jared Jeffries and Big Baby are more valuable than conventional stats indicate because they draw a lot of charges. Then I thought about how it should be in a stat called Possession Changers. It would be charges taken + blocks that do not give the ball back to the other team + steals. Anyone think it's a good idea? If the first two parts of the stat are available anywhere, please let me know.
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I like it.
These are the types of guys you fill around your team so you can win a title. Maybe not Jeffries, but Big Baby and even a guy like Tyson Chandler who get blocks take charges with the occasional bucket.
"I'm coming after whoever who has it."
Not a bad idea though I wish a stat could be created to demonstrate true defensive prowess rather than just the floppers
There’s a huge difference between a real defender that draws a charge and a flopper.
Some of that could be the Eyeball Test…
You look at a player drawing a charge and ask yourself “What would happen to that defender if this was 1985”?
If the answer is “that punk would be dropped kicked into the 3rd row for trying to bring that weak-assed junk on the court” then possibly you’re looking at a flopper
Battier = Defender
Ginobli = Flopper
"Man, I've got vision and the rest of the world wears bifocals."
"Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."
"Franchise Tag: Enabling Incompetent Owners to remain imcompetent"
"Contenders do; pretenders give excuses why they did not"
"Yes everybody does have an opinion; but that does not make your opinion any less wrong"
"That ought to stop your bitchin"
Rather than the Flopper stat, if "Forced Turnovers" could be put in its place I'd like that stat a lot
Drawing Charges would be included in the FT
But how accurate can that stat be?
"Man, I've got vision and the rest of the world wears bifocals."
"Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."
"Franchise Tag: Enabling Incompetent Owners to remain imcompetent"
"Contenders do; pretenders give excuses why they did not"
"Yes everybody does have an opinion; but that does not make your opinion any less wrong"
"That ought to stop your bitchin"
so you could, in theory, have like 4 blocks but 0 possession changers right?
"Rooting for the Yankees is like rooting for Steve Jobs to win the lotto." - Chris Rock
interesting...
though i might include all blocks because even the ones that don’t get you the ball right away often alter future shots through intimidation… which can be very useful in changing the complexion of the game.
by bucketsncents on Jun 17, 2011 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions
if that's the case
you’d have to include having a hand near the ball being intimidating. I don’t think blocks alone are that valuable.
so you don't think mutombo...
even in the games he had maybe 1 or 2 blocks, affected the oppositions game planning?
by bucketsncents on Jun 17, 2011 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm sure he did
But it’s not like he didn’t have a ton of blocks that went to his own team also. Guys who get a lot of steals cause players to be more cautious even in games they don’t have any steals, right?
absolutely...
which is why i love the +/- stat… it accounts for what happens to the score when they’re on the floor. some guys presence alone on the floor has a significant affect on the score, even if they never put in a bucket. wait, it seems we’re agreeing… ?
by bucketsncents on Jun 17, 2011 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I think +/- is useful too, just not in small samples
And it’s not very specific, which is why I think PC would be useful. More useful than blocks alone, for sure.
and you also have to account for who you're playing with and who you're playing against
And the time left in the game. All that can make your +/- very unrepresentative of how you played.
isn't there a chemistry +/-?
like looking at the score changes when guys are on the court together? for example, clearly melo and landry had shit chemistry +/- (as did melo and stat i think). i dig the idea of honoring the dirty work guys though.
by bucketsncents on Jun 17, 2011 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
there are adjusted +/- and stuff
but it’s so complex. This at least is something you can see and score yourself.
I always thought
“points against” should be a stat. Like how many points the guy on the other team scored while a player was guarding him. Because some guys play very good defense but don’t record many blocks/steals.
"Rooting for the Yankees is like rooting for Steve Jobs to win the lotto." - Chris Rock
it's not in the box score
But 82games has it. The difficulty with that, of course, is that there are defensive switches, fast breaks, and other things that make it tough to determine who should be guarding who. Also, good defensive players usually guard good offensive players, so their points against numbers will be worse.
This would be incredibly hard for the reasons mindfeck stated below.
"I'm coming after whoever who has it."
Interesting idea
If you really wanted to get into it, you could do things like forced turnovers – up and downs, travels, forcing backcourt violations, etc – or you could include just good contests on shots, like forcing a player to put the ball up differently than they intended.
Of course, all the things I mentioned have variables like you said about switches, fast breaks and such for “points against”. Would be tough to measure, but interesting to see what each player does on defense that can go unnoticed
but then again...
players + and – scores probably reflect these things anyway… though not quite as specific.
why not.
i dont know if they’d be recognized anymore.most of the youth (peopel my age)
only look at points and boards (assists too).
but i like it
Dear fox.... Fire Aikman
Lebron james is a bitch
The new Prince of NY is here
Desean Jackson IS a punk
27 Going on 28 NYY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
by Lawrence Taylor The Real LT on Jun 17, 2011 1:46 PM EDT reply actions
Nah that's old school
Like how in baseball people used to talk about batting average and RBI like they’re the most important. There was even a video game called RBI Baseball. How weird is that? I think nowadays, a lot of people know PER since ESPN made it mainsteam, but it’s pretty lousy for defense, and doesn’t include possession changers, so Jeffries is underrated and guys who block the ball out of bounds are overrated. And of course volume shooters may be overrated, which is hard to say unless you know if the volume shooting helps teammates be open.
yea, i hate when people say jeffries sucks.
i have to explain to them that their is more to the game then just shooting
Dear fox.... Fire Aikman
Lebron james is a bitch
The new Prince of NY is here
Desean Jackson IS a punk
27 Going on 28 NYY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
by Lawrence Taylor The Real LT on Jun 17, 2011 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions
oh, and the title fooled me, i thought you was talking about STAT not stats
Dear fox.... Fire Aikman
Lebron james is a bitch
The new Prince of NY is here
Desean Jackson IS a punk
27 Going on 28 NYY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
by Lawrence Taylor The Real LT on Jun 17, 2011 1:46 PM EDT reply actions
lol, yea. i was expecting some BS thing on how to change stats play (which why would u need to)
and was pleasently suprised when i saw this
Dear fox.... Fire Aikman
Lebron james is a bitch
The new Prince of NY is here
Desean Jackson IS a punk
27 Going on 28 NYY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
by Lawrence Taylor The Real LT on Jun 17, 2011 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Other than wanting him to block shots in bounds as opposed to out…
by superturboultra on Jun 17, 2011 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions
shhhhhhhhhhhhhh.
STAT is perfect the way he is
Dear fox.... Fire Aikman
Lebron james is a bitch
The new Prince of NY is here
Desean Jackson IS a punk
27 Going on 28 NYY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
by Lawrence Taylor The Real LT on Jun 17, 2011 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I like that idea.
I also think we should find a way to credit player for good picks. Very under-appreciated.
Very good idea
Maybe something like how many fast breaks a player starts from the defensive end would be pretty good too.
What a good pick is is something that is very subjective. We’ll never have stats that show the whole story, at least definitely not in basketball. That’s where scouts come in, checking out what the stats don’t show.
I firmly believe that any man's finest hour, the greatest fulfillment of all that he holds dear, is that moment when he has worked his heart out in a good cause and lies exhausted on the field of battle - victorious.
Vince Lombardi
I remember this study
http://www.82games.com/comm16.htm
Although on a per player level, it only gives us the percentage of their blocks that the team recovers, not the actual number. Also it’s from 2003-04.
Also, Greg Ostertag???
by superturboultra on Jun 17, 2011 3:26 PM EDT reply actions
Also
Mutumbo? New York? Who even remembers this shit???
by superturboultra on Jun 17, 2011 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I like it
could also include violations (shot clock, traveling, etc.) when the guy you’re guarding has the ball.
It'd be complicated to keep track of though
You can’t always measure who’s guarding the ball-handler, with picks, switches, zone defense, double teams and all that. And as for the shot clock violation, maybe the guy just got a bad pass from a teammate with 2 seconds left.
I firmly believe that any man's finest hour, the greatest fulfillment of all that he holds dear, is that moment when he has worked his heart out in a good cause and lies exhausted on the field of battle - victorious.
Vince Lombardi
Great idea
I’ve never been able to find “charges taken” data anywhere. I bet somebody will start tracking that next season (presuming there is a next season) because it’s in high demand.
Excellent point!!!
I’ve also not found a very comprehensive list of raw statistics
The closest so far that I trust (mostly because I’ve figured out how to clear out the crap) is from Yahoo when you drill down a few levels to get every player.
But even then some base defensive stats are missing
"Man, I've got vision and the rest of the world wears bifocals."
"Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."
"Franchise Tag: Enabling Incompetent Owners to remain imcompetent"
"Contenders do; pretenders give excuses why they did not"
"Yes everybody does have an opinion; but that does not make your opinion any less wrong"
"That ought to stop your bitchin"
while we are at it
if you make a pass to some1 and he is fouled but does not make the shot, you dont get an assist
those should count as some sort of assist
such a rule would also help me greatly in 2k11
While I appreciate the +/- and the Per-48 Minute Stats
I do not put much of any value in those stats.
If you’re a good defender on the floor with a bunch of stooges you will have a bad +/-. If you’re a defensive stooge on the floor with good defenders you may have a good +/-.
If the Per-48 was truly indicative of a player’s value, then Reggie Evans would probably be all NBA because he’s such a rebounding beast. But the reality is his hands and the rest of his game is so dreadful he can’t be trusted on the court for any length of time.
"Man, I've got vision and the rest of the world wears bifocals."
"Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."
"Franchise Tag: Enabling Incompetent Owners to remain imcompetent"
"Contenders do; pretenders give excuses why they did not"
"Yes everybody does have an opinion; but that does not make your opinion any less wrong"
"That ought to stop your bitchin"
Also
Reggie Evans is UFA this summer…
by superturboultra on Jun 18, 2011 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions
aaaaaaaaaaaaaargh!!!!!!!!!
"Man, I've got vision and the rest of the world wears bifocals."
"Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."
"Franchise Tag: Enabling Incompetent Owners to remain imcompetent"
"Contenders do; pretenders give excuses why they did not"
"Yes everybody does have an opinion; but that does not make your opinion any less wrong"
"That ought to stop your bitchin"
Adjusted +/- is a good defensive stat
Or individual +/-, Points Allowed per Possession in one on one and help defender situations.
But, to get that stuff you either need to be a sportswriter or subscribe to something like Sports Synergy which watches and records all pertinent data for each and every play.
I appreciate the +/- in theory but there's too many real life elements that can't be factored into a realistic stat
Who are you guarding, who else is on the floor, what type of defense is being played and many other elements factor into a player’s supposed +/-.
Some of the coaches claim to live off of it; but they’re also in a position to manipulate the scenario, understand what the stat means in their situation and how it really reflects on a player.
For everyone else ultimately it is just another pretty ESPN stat that is easily manipulated into whatever a person wants to argue it to be.
And that is a very fair point that I agree with; unless you have access to the comprehensive raw data, you are ultimately dependent on somebody else’s skewing of the data.
"Man, I've got vision and the rest of the world wears bifocals."
"Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."
"Franchise Tag: Enabling Incompetent Owners to remain imcompetent"
"Contenders do; pretenders give excuses why they did not"
"Yes everybody does have an opinion; but that does not make your opinion any less wrong"
"That ought to stop your bitchin"
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