FanPost

It's time for another Fuhry Rebounding Assessment!

Observe:

2012-13
Game Knicks missed shots Knicks O-bounds Knicks O-bound pct Opponent missed shots Opponents Obounds Opponent O-bound pct Differential Result
Miami 11/2 48 13 27.08% 38 7 18.42% 8.66% Win
Philadelphia 38 8 21.05% 45 10 22.22% -1.17% Win
Philadelphia 45 9 20.00% 57 19 33.33% -13.33% Win
Dallas 11/9 49 11 22.45% 48 9 18.75% 3.70% Win
Orlando 11/13 43 6 13.95% 38 9 23.68% -9.73% Win
San Antonio 11/15 46 12 26.09% 49 14 28.57% -2.48% Win
Memphis 11/16 35 10 28.57% 39 12 30.77% -2.20% Loss
Indiana 11/18 57 15 26.32% 43 9 20.93% 5.39% Win
New Orleans 11/20 46 13 28.26% 40 5 12.50% 15.76% Win
Dallas 11/21 38 5 13.16% 43 11 25.58% -12.42% Loss
Houston 11/23 49 6 12.24% 43 11 25.58% -13.34% Loss
Detroit 11/25 41 10 24.39% 41 10 24.39% 0.00% Win
Brooklyn 11/26 52 17 32.69% 54 18 33.33% -0.64% Loss
Milwaukee 11/28 38 8 21.05% 39 5 12.82% 8.23% Win
Washington 11/30 38 3 7.89% 43 13 30.23% -22.34% Win
Phoenix 12/2 50 16 32.00% 41 11 26.83% 5.17% Win
Charlotte 12/5 53 10 18.87% 44 12 27.27% -8.40% Win
Miami 12/6 50 11 22.00% 44 7 15.91% 6.09% Win
Chicago 12/8 57 14 24.56% 44 10 22.73% 1.83% Loss
Denver 12/9 49 13 26.53% 32 5 15.63% 10.91% Win
Nets 12/11 42 10 23.81% 32 7 21.88% 1.93% Win
964 220 22.82% 897 214 23.86% -1.04%

I have heard it said that the Knicks, for all their successes, are losing the rebounding battle on the regular, in fact, I have heard that the Knicks are 27th in the league in rebounding differential. But this bothers me, because I have long realized that just looking at the raw number of rebounds doesn't really tell the story of what went on in the game.

Every time a team misses a shot, two things can happen: the opponent can rebound that ball (this usually happens, on average, about 70-75 percent of the time) or the team that shot the ball can rebound their own miss. The thing is, rebounding numbers per game don't take into account the amount of shots each team misses. If a team misses more shots, it will tend to inflate the other teams rebounding totals because there are simply more chances for the more likely defensive rebounds.

In the Knicks case, in 12 of their 21 games, they've missed more shots than their opponent. And yet, 10 of these games have been Knicks wins! Weird, huh? Well, not really. The Knicks tend to have significantly less turnovers than their opponents - resulting in more shot attempts - often resulting in more misses, and yet also more makes and more points. The greater number of Knick misses will usually result in more defensive rebounds for the opposing team. But this number is skewed because the opposing team also had more rebound attempts.

A far better measure of who won the rebounding war is to measure each team's percentage of their own missed shots that they rebounded. As you can see by the chart above, the Knicks have been outrebounded on the whole this season, but not by much. They were outrebounded in 4 of their 5 losses, but they also were outrebounded in 6 of their 16 wins - including a win against the Wizards where they were rather spectacularly outrebounded. A

fter being outrebounded in 5 of their first 7 games, the Knicks have only been outrebounded in 5 of their subsequent 14 games. And they have won the rebounding battle in their past 5 games, by my calculations. Even though the Knicks are probably the kind of team that emphasizes getting back on defense over offensive rebounding, (and this is something teams would tend to do when playing with a lead, as the Knicks often have been), they still have nearly broken even in the rebounding war overall, and since that Washington game, they've clearly come out ahead.

And given that they have been playing Carmelo Anthony at power forward, I'd say they've been holding their own. Anthony is a good rebounder for a small forward, but not all that great for a power forward. Getting Stoudemire back should help their rebounding, even though he's not the best rebounder.


X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join Posting and Toasting

You must be a member of Posting and Toasting to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Posting and Toasting. You should read them.

Join Posting and Toasting

You must be a member of Posting and Toasting to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Posting and Toasting. You should read them.

Spinner

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9347_tracker