Defense at the 4: Amare vs. Jeffries?
by JR99 on Feb 13, 2012 2:17 AM EST
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PrintImo, the best solution is to tailor the lineup to each situation. If there's a major scorer at the opponent's 4 who must be stopped (Pau, Love, Bosh, et al), and Amare can't do it, use JJ over Amare.... if you've got the balls for that, which you should if you're gonna be head coach.
Defensive Efficiency:*
Jeffries: 94.6
Amare: 100.8
Fields: 96.0
Anthony: 99.0
Novak: 98.3
* Points allowed per 100 possessions. (An imperfect advanced stat, but it's what we have for measuring individual defense.)
( Source: http://www.nba.com/advancedstats/player.html#Carmelo-Anthony|2546;year=201112;season=r )
Jeffries is SUBSTANTIALLY better than Amare on D.
Anthony vs. Novak or Fields is not as clear... Fields has been the better defender, but Melo is a MUCH better rebounder (obviously). And we can always hope that Melo will improve his D now.... can't we?
Of course, who knows how all these dynamics will change in this reborn Knicks team? Anything can happen now. Guess we have to wait and see.
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The superiority of Amare over Jeffries in terms of scoring and rebounding is so big as to render utterly meaningless the latter's defensive superiority over the former.
Plus Amare can play good defense in stretches.
The answer is Amare.
Jeffries compiled most of those numbers against lesser competition.
He’s not all that good of a one-on-one defender, especially when facing quality bigs. And even though he might be better than Stat on the defensive end, he offers near nothing on offense (in which case he’s allowing the opposing big to conserve a ton of energy).
Probably should use past tense there
Jeffries USED TO offer near nothing on offense. It’s all changing now. Everything, really.
No offense, but
it’s pretty obviously you’ve been following the Knicks for like, two weeks.
Like +/-, this stat does not take into account that JJ gets most of his minutes against back-ups
He is a very good help defender, hustle player, etc., but come on. With a PG who is halfway competent at running a pick and roll/pick and pop, Amar’e can get you 25 points on 15 shots without breaking a sweat, something Jeffries could never dream of. That kind of offensive beastliness more than makes up for his defensive issues.
Number of points is not the important issue
The efficiency of scoring is, as well as the end result, the points differential. See the “Well, let’s look at the numbers….” comment below.
Do you understand how efficient 25 points on 15 shots is?
And how utterly incapable Jared Jeffries is of doing anything close?
It would be VERY impressive, if it were true.....
Amare’s FG% is 45%. His TS% is 51.3%. Not close to 25 for 15.
The key #s......
Amare’s Defensive Efficiency (opponent points per 100 possessions) is 100.8, while Jeffries’ is 94.6. So in a typical game, opponents will score about 6 POINTS more on Amare than Jeffries. This may change now, but we don’t know that, yet.
6 points is huge.
And if Amare doesn’t score, as we have seen, SOMEBODY ELSE WILL. Shots still go up, just not by Amare. To compensate for his weaker defense, Amare would need to have a TS% about 15%-20% BETTER than the guys who are taking the shots he normally takes. If that’s Jeffries, for example, it’s not even close… in fact, Amare’s FG% is only 1% better, and more importantly….
- Amare’s TS% is 51.3%,
- Jeffries’ TS% over the past 4 games is 56.3%.
Based on these numbers, Jeffries production if more efficient than Amare’s. But of course, Amare’s should also improve in the new system… so we gotta wait and see.
I don't know how familiar you are with Jeffries' offensive game, but if Amare was getting the shots Jared's been getting during these last 5 games, I would bet your dog's paws Amare would be posting a high TS% than 56%.
Is that Amare’s TS% for this season? A season that’s been so bad for him that people are actively whispering that he’s lost more than just a step? What is the lowest TS% in his career?
I’m not even gonna go on about what a minuscule sample 4 games is, but do you really think Jared will be able to switch roles with Amare in the rotation that much more effectively?
I dream of Eddy Curry feeding me fish sticks.
Look at it Dave. Look at it.
okay someone posting while I was typing somehow made me post that before I was finished, but while I agree Jared's defense(both man and team concept) are massively superior, Amare is the better option on both sides without a doubt.
Since his move to the 4, we’ve all realized that part of his effectiveness last year was due to the fact that C’s not named Chuck Hayes had no chance to defend against him, but Amare didn’t exactly have the defensive advantage on the other side. His opponents’ eFG% allowed, as well as the raw net points recorded while he’s on and off the court, has been predictably shitty this year, but with the addition of a bona fide PG, I think his offensive contributions will more than make up for what a great matador he is.
Lin would have had 5 straight double doubles by now if Amare had been the one converting and giving Lin assists instead of Jared going up with the ball like he has oven mitts on.
I dream of Eddy Curry feeding me fish sticks.
Look at it Dave. Look at it.
We don't disagree
I’m pretty sure Amare’s offensive #s will jump in the new system, as you say.
And like you, I think Amare’s defense is the real worry going forward. He’s gotta buy into the extra effort on D that the whole team has shown lately. If not, his offense will not (cannot) compensate. (Even if Amare’s offense improves to 56% or 58% TS%, it won’t compensate for the points given up on the defensive end.)
I don't know if he can though
he is stupid at defense
Anxiously awaiting the day my username will be appropriate
Fields is rebounding from the guard position, so you’re comparing apples vs oranges.
Begin the comparisons when Lin starts distributing the ball. Hopefully, Melo and Amare won’t be getting so many touches.
True about Fields
But I think you have to agree that Melo is way the better rebounder anyway, even if we don’t have apples-to-apples data to prove it.
Seriously guys. I can't wait for Lin to finally start distributing the ball. And freezing out Amare and Melo for some reason.
I wish he could just pass it to David Lee.
I dream of Eddy Curry feeding me fish sticks.
Look at it Dave. Look at it.
by GAx on Feb 14, 2012 1:36 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
NY Post reporting Lin may sign elsewhere next season as Knicks don’t have room in their cap for Lin?
Incredible if Dolan spends all that $ on Melo and Amare, but it is all irrelevant.
Melo and Amare probably won’t be back next season.
Have to go with Amare
JJ holds back the offense as much or more than he helps the defense.
Well
I’m dang sure Amare wouldn’t take charges like JJ does…
My Wife is a Patriot's fan...
"Giants rely on fumbles and stripping the ball. If the pats secure the ball, then the pats win, but if they fumble or let the ball get striped than the giants win. every game the giants play they always benefit from the other teams bonehead mistakes (fumbled or striped) not from thier skills. The giants are a dirty team, I can’t think of any othe team as dirty as the giants. They try to strip the ball as hard as they can because they know they can’t win a fair game." by EaglesNeedD on Jan 23, 2012 2:01 AM EST
by Giantssincesix on Feb 13, 2012 11:43 AM EST reply actions
You never start JJ over STAT
NEVER
2012 New York Mets, World Series Champions!
Well, let's look at the numbers....
Stat’s FG% is 45%. In the 4 games that Jerffries has played in Stat’s absence, his FG% was 44% (11/25). Not much difference there. Don’t forget, when Stat’s not there, SOMEBODY is still going to take the shots he would normally take; it’s not like that production is lost…. the question becomes one of efficiency. Will the team score as EFFICIENTLY in Stat’s absence? The answer with regard to Jeffries seems to be yes. And the answer we’ve seen in games seems to be yes too.
But on defense, it appears from the numbers that Jeffries is MUCH better than Stat. (By about 6 points per game. Which is A LOT!) It doesn’t matter in the end where the point differential comes from in any given game, right? The object is to score more than the other guys, so preventing the other team from scoring is no less valuable than scoring more yourself. MORE valuable, it could be argued, because good defense often leads to better offense, due to the extra buckets in transition.
Bottom line: Especially in games against high-scoring 4s, giving Jeffries extra playing time makes pretty good sense…. if the coach has the gonads for it.
And the TS% number are even more interesting
…because there, Jeffries’ is actually better:
- Amare’s TS% is 51.3%,
- Jeffries’ TS% in past 4 games is 56.3%.
…though Amare’s could also improve in the new system.
4 games is epic SSS - talking 25 shots here
let’s see what 4 games of STAT with Lin does. 4 games with less rusty STAT and Lin should be even better
2012 New York Mets, World Series Champions!
Such is the power of Lin!
Is this an actual discussion about starting Jared Jeffries over Amar’e Stoudemire? Is this actually happening?
Get The Frickin' Rebound
i worry about the impact of stoudemire's defense
sometimes amar’e’s a better option for one-on-one defense just because he doesn’t weight 112 pounds like jeffries does, but the difference in team defense is huge
Anxiously awaiting the day my username will be appropriate
Lost in all this hoopla about Knick fans reading between the lines of post-game interviews to find proof that Melo's teammates are trying to send him veiled messages about buying into the offense,
is the fact that Amare needs to buy in to the team’s defense.
Well okay it’s not lost at all, but there’s a certain humor in this whole situation to me. People are afraid of Melo being the problem child when he comes back while not worrying about Amare fitting into the offense at all, but on the other end I’m not that worried about Melo on defense while I’m terrified Amare’s dumbassery on defense will kill any and all momentum we ever have.
I dream of Eddy Curry feeding me fish sticks.
Look at it Dave. Look at it.
his pick and roll defense is a huge problem
which is why I wonder whether he’s a greater asset on the floor than jeffries . . .
Anxiously awaiting the day my username will be appropriate
You're not worried about Melo on defense?
He’s honestly not much better than Amar’e overall, his mistakes are just less glaring
I don't know why I'm not worried about Melo on defense, actually. I know he has a rep, but reps in the NBA are often worth less than the paper Bogans signed his name on.
I dream of Eddy Curry feeding me fish sticks.
Look at it Dave. Look at it.
melo makes mistakes on team defense
but he’s not like amar’e. melo understands when to double and how to hedge pick and rolls. amar’e is so bad that teams will run pick and rolls and motion at him because they’ll know he’ll get confused.
Anxiously awaiting the day my username will be appropriate
Melo
virtually never tries to over screens, is slow to close out on shooters and gets caught ball-watching constantly. But I agree, his mistakes are more about not trying or losing focus whereas Amar’e is more prone to simply not understanding.
amar'e ball watches like no other
Anxiously awaiting the day my username will be appropriate
Seriously, to anyone honestly contemplating whether Jared Jeffries is better for the Knicks than Amar'e Stoudemire
You are retarded. Get a fucking clue. That is all.
a) Nobody has suggested that
(though it’s arguable in certain circumstances.)
b) Do numbers give you a headache? Here, this might help…
http://www.midol.com/products.html
Step away from basketball-reference.net
before you hurt yourself. You plainly don’t understand the statistics you cite.
I'm sorry...
but does that pass for an argument around here?
Does suggesting that JJ's okay TS% over 5 games means shit vs. Amar'e career-long high TS%
pass for statistical analysis where you’re from? GTFO with that shit!
Everyone knows it's only 4-5 games
That’s why it’s a discussion and not a certainty. Maybe this will help: http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/discussion
amar'e's defense is killing us tonight
it’s cancerous
Anxiously awaiting the day my username will be appropriate
Advanced stats are overrated
That same site puts Shump’s DRating at 100.1 and he’s our best on ball defender. He shuts people down. He shut down Calderon tonight and Kobe in the Lakers game. He’s a stopper.
Not to mention Jared Jeffries’ D is overrated. He was completely abused by Kevin Love and by Jermaine O’Neal in playoffs last year. He is fantastic at drawing a charge, but he’s isn’t as good offensively as Amar’e and isn’t as good a rebounder. The real difference is that Jeffries is a good team defender, whereas Amar’e seems to do better in one on one situations.
Do the Shumpty Shump, come on and do the Shumpty Shump
jeffries is a fine one-on-one defender if he's not giving up to much strength and size
he is good at guarding other beanpoles like garnett and bosh, but guys like love will take it to him. love took it to chandler too. al jefferson abused us as well. really the guy who should be guarding those types of players is josh harrellson.
Anxiously awaiting the day my username will be appropriate
Think they're useful but only as part of the analyzing process.
Kinda view them as a useful tool to help judge players/performance. Don’t think it’s a good idea to just go advanced stats and just ignore everything else that can be eyeballed.
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