FanPost

4/17/2012: How has Amare + Lin's absence affected the Knicks Mathematically

Wagesofwins.com recently posted an article on this. They have this nifty chart. Please go to their site and read their explanation of stats.

I copied the most important data here.

New York Knicks 12-25-2011 to 3-24-2012
PLAYERPOSGMPWP48WPPOP/G
Tyson Chandler 5.0 48 1538.6 0.316 10.13 4.5
Landry Fields 2.3 49 1456.3 0.186 5.63 1.7
Steve Novak 3.6 38 631.1 0.195 2.56 1.0
Jeremy Lin 1.0 36 940.4 0.151 2.96 0.9
Josh Harrellson 4.5 27 391.3 0.161 1.31 0.6
Jerome Jordan 5.0 20 75.1 0.245 0.38 0.4
Renaldo Balkman 3.1 15 115.4 0.179 0.43 0.4
Jared Jeffries 4.5 34 668.8 0.113 1.57 0.2
Bill Walker 2.6 30 610.5 0.067 0.85 -0.4
Mike Bibby 1.0 31 329.8 0.022 0.15 -0.5
Amare Stoudemire 4.2 43 1428.3 0.059 1.75 -0.9
Baron Davis 1.1 15 249.8 0.009 0.05 -1.0
Iman Shumpert 1.6 42 1141.3 0.044 1.04 -1.0
J.R. Smith 2.5 18 413.3 0.023 0.20 -1.1
Carmelo Anthony 3.2 39 1298.3 0.028 0.77 -1.5
Toney Douglas 1.2 33 546.6 -0.164 -1.86 -2.8
New York Knicks 3-25-2012 to 4-17-2012
PLAYERPOSGMPWP48WPPOP/G
Tyson Chandler 5.0 12 427.8 0.276 2.46 4.1
Carmelo Anthony 3.7 12 443.4 0.225 2.08 3.0
J.R. Smith 2.7 12 389.7 0.155 1.26 1.2
Iman Shumpert 1.7 12 428.0 0.131 1.17 0.7
Mike Bibby 1.0 10 103.8 0.156 0.34 0.4
Steve Novak 4.0 12 260.0 0.122 0.66 0.3
Jerome Jordan 5.0 3 6.1 0.254 0.03 0.2
Josh Harrellson 4.9 9 97.5 0.088 0.18 -0.1
Bill Walker 2.5 2 1.3 -0.680 -0.02 -0.3
Landry Fields 2.6 12 312.0 0.072 0.47 -0.5
Jared Jeffries 4.9 6 60.1 0.005 0.01 -0.6
Toney Douglas 1.5 7 80.4 -0.045 -0.08 -1.1
Baron Davis 1.0 12 295.0 -0.012 -0.07 -1.8

Here's the short of what PoP means. You can think of PoP as a player's production over the league average. Learning how they come up with the variance and coefficients can take a while. Guess they need to sell books. In any case, we see a couple things.

Carmelo loves the 4 spot. In the article, one analysis is that since he isn't as effective in SF farther away, he hits more shots closer in the PF spot. Rebounds will be easier, etc.

Shump, JR smith, Carmelo are all producing way more numbers now that Lin and Amare are gone.

But the rest of the team are down.

Baron Davis actively hurts the team even MORE now that Lin is gone.

.3 wp48 is superstar, .200 is a star, .100 is a starter, .50 is bench.

So Tyson went from a superstar to high star.

Carmelo went from a scrub to a high star.

Landry went from a rising star to a bench warmer.

JR smith went from scrub to starter

Shumpert improved slightly.

Jorts went from a rising star to bench/starter status.

Novak went from a star to a starter.

As long as Carmelo can be a +3 PoP, it can make up for the lowered contributions of other members. It also makes shutting down the Knicks much easier. Stop carmelo and you stop a whole chunk of Knicks capability.

Either Lin is the one blocking Melo's success or Amare is. If Amare comes back and Carmelo's WP48 and PoP drop significantly, we'll have the proof.

P.S. chart had a snafu. it' fixed now.

i'm adding a new chart from nerd numbers. from february to April 17th. Here's the contributions. Tyson has consistently been a borderline superstar. Novak is a borderline STAR player. Lin and Jeremy are starters--still need a bit more to go before they are 'stars'. They aren't consistent. This really means that Landry, Tyson, and novak can play even better than they do now. And consistently.

PlayerPosGMPWP48WPPoP/48PoP/G
Tyson Chandler 5.0 39 1257.4 0.279 7.31 5.6 3.8
Steve Novak 3.7 38 783.4 0.187 3.05 2.7 1.2
Jeremy Lin 1.0 27 892.6 0.144 2.67 1.4 1.0
Landry Fields 2.4 40 1117.3 0.148 3.45 1.5 0.9
Jared Jeffries 4.5 29 523.6 0.148 1.61 1.5 0.6
Josh Harrellson 4.8 20 193.1 0.155 0.62 1.7 0.4
Jerome Jordan 5.0 13 37.9 0.283 0.22 5.7 0.3
Amar'e Stoudemire 4.3 24 774.3 0.110 1.77 0.3 0.2
Iman Shumpert 1.8 37 1048.0 0.101 2.21 0.1 0.0
Mike Bibby 1.0 25 204.0 0.074 0.32 -0.8 -0.1
J.R. Smith 2.6 30 803.0 0.087 1.45 -0.4 -0.2
Carmelo Anthony 3.4 33 1105.8 0.083 1.90 -0.5 -0.4
Bill Walker 2.9 12 221.2 0.021 0.10 -2.4 -0.9
Toney Douglas 1.4 19 132.7 -0.105 -0.29 -6.3 -0.9
Baron Davis 1.1 27 544.8 -0.002 -0.02 -3.1 -1.3
Renaldo Balkman 3.0 3 10.9 -0.489 -0.11 -18.3 -1.4

4/17/2012 Update:

Just discovered a new site on adjusted plus minuses. Instead of taking plus and minuses for one game we take the +/- from a player's previous year playing for the same team--adjust for garbage time and lumping all minimum usage players into one garbageaverage +/- -- and take the differentials while adjusting for home court advantage.

In order of their contribution +/- you take their offensive +/- and mingle in their d+/- and you get a wholistic version of their contribution. Caveat are that these +/- are heavily lineup based and skewed toward their historic averages. While Novak and Jorts are contributing. They are playing worse than they were last year. On the defensive end, maybe. A positive DASPM is bad. Enemy +/-. The data was taken from here.

Player ORtg DRtg Rebound ASPM DASPM
Jeremy Lin 110 100 -0.48 5.47 -0.41
Tyson Chandler 137 98 1.14 4.08 -1.19
Carmelo Anthony 102 101 0 1.75 0.05
Landry Fields 104 101 -0.51 0.01 -0.23
Steve Novak 128 104 -0.53 -0.26 1.7
Josh Harrellson 101 98 0.58 -0.5 -1.08
Amare Stoudemire 99 99 0.61 -0.79 -0.57
Iman Shumpert 88 99 -0.61 -1.07 -1.45
Jared Jeffries 97 100 0.1 -1.46 -0.61
Bill Walker 97 102 -0.46 -2.51 0.4
Jerome Jordan 115 103 0.7 -2.99 1.29
Mike Bibby 88 103 -0.73 -4.2 0.8
Toney D

The reason why you don't see JR smith is that i put a threshold of 21 games. JR has played the least games with us. useless to include his data.

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