FanPost

4/25/2012 What are our chances at Playoff Seeds?

basketballprospectus.com


4/25 Updated

Here's what's left to determine. Boston can still catch Atlanta for home-court advantage in their series, which is extremely unlikely after the Hawks beat the Clippers. New York can finish anywhere from sixth to eighth, though statistically the Knicks have no chance of catching Orlando because the Magic hosts the Bobcats tonight. Charlotte's road-adjusted Pythagorean record is below zero, indicating for simulation purposes the Bobcats can't win. In practice, their chances are slightly better than that against an Orlando team plagued by injury.

Out West, the top three seeds are set. The Clippers and Memphis will play each other, but the host is about a 50-50 proposition right now. Subjectively, I'd make the Grizzlies the favorites because they finish up against the Magic. Six, seven and eight are still in flux, with Denver the favorite to finish in sixth but still capable of finishing eighth.

Team           AvgW    Play    Div     HCA       1       2       3       4       5       6       7       8
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Chicago        49.4   100.0   100.0   100.0   100.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
Miami          46.6   100.0   100.0   100.0     0.0   100.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
Indiana        42.5   100.0     0.0   100.0     0.0     0.0   100.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
Atlanta        39.8   100.0     0.0    92.1     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0   100.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
Boston         38.7   100.0   100.0     7.9     0.0     0.0     0.0   100.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
Orlando        37.3   100.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0   100.0     0.0     0.0
New York       35.6   100.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0    91.5     8.5
Philadelphia   34.9   100.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     8.5    91.5
Milwaukee      31.9     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0

------------------

3/28

eam           AvgW    Play    Div     HCA       1       2       3       4       5       6       7       8
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Chicago        49.5   100.0   100.0   100.0    88.0    12.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
Miami          46.7   100.0   100.0   100.0    12.0    88.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
Indiana        40.5   100.0     0.0    84.8     0.0     0.0    52.5     4.9    29.4    11.5     1.3     0.4
Atlanta        39.3    99.9     0.0    60.3     0.0     0.0    27.5     3.7    46.6    18.4     2.8     0.9
Orlando        38.4    99.7     0.0    26.5     0.0     0.0     9.3     2.0    22.0    54.9     9.9     1.6
Boston         38.1    99.3    84.5    27.3     0.0     0.0    10.4    74.1     0.4     2.7     8.3     3.4
New York       35.7    90.3    12.7     0.8     0.0     0.0     0.2    12.6     1.0     8.1    41.8    26.6
Milwaukee      34.3    57.6     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.1     1.9    22.5    33.1
Philadelphia   34.5    53.2     2.8     0.3     0.0     0.0     0.1     2.7     0.5     2.5    13.4    34.0
Detroit        25.6     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
Toronto        23.3     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
New Jersey     23.2     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
Cleveland      21.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
Washington     16.3     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
Charlotte       9.6     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0


we've got a 12% chance at the 4th spot. and 8% chance at the 6th. Yeah. weird. Also. We are highly likely to win 7th. but if we don't make 7th we have a 50/50 chance of either making the 8th or not making it to the playoffs. we've got a 90% chance of making the playoffs! Yeah baby! I would like to thank the philadelphia 76ers for making this all possible. (we should get thaddeus young from their implosion) I love thaddeus young. Full on. no remorse.

4/11 Update

<quote>These are generated by simulating the remainder of the season 1,000 times using a program written by Bradford Doolittle. To rate teams, we've used schedule-adjusted performance since March 1 onward. What makes these ratings unique is that they project seeding, using the actual rules about division champions, as well as home-court advantage.

By virtue of going into Miami and winning, the Boston Celtics just about assured themselves the Atlantic Division title. The Celtics are now three games up on Philadelphia with nine to play, and their rating is so much better that they generally increase their lead the rest of the way. Boston now has a reasonable chance of passing one of the East's top four teams and claiming home-court advantage in the opening round, which seemed unthinkable last week.</quote>

Team           AvgW    Play    Div     HCA       1       2       3       4       5       6       7       8
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Chicago        50.1   100.0   100.0   100.0    96.5     3.5     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
Miami          46.0   100.0   100.0   100.0     3.5    96.5     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
Indiana        40.7   100.0     0.0    87.9     0.0     0.0    52.9    10.6    28.9     7.0     0.6     0.0
Atlanta        39.3   100.0     0.0    53.3     0.0     0.0    24.7     5.1    48.7    15.9     4.4     1.2
Boston         38.8   100.0    90.6    40.8     0.0     0.0    17.7    73.0     0.3     2.2     5.2     1.6
Orlando        38.2   100.0     0.0    17.5     0.0     0.0     4.6     2.0    19.5    63.1     8.9     1.9
New York       35.3    84.2     5.4     0.3     0.0     0.0     0.0     5.4     1.2     7.3    42.5    27.8
Philadelphia   35.1    76.0     4.0     0.2     0.0     0.0     0.1     3.9     1.4     4.4    24.7    41.5
Milwaukee      33.5    39.8     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.1    13.7    26.0

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