On how developments will turn out starting Sunday morning; specifically around the Knicks and rumored FA they may be considering.
The players union earned a victory and NY maintains Bird Rights on Lin and Novak. Referring back to my May 28th Fan Post, that puts NY in the Best Case scenario; they have all Bird rights but also have a projected cap number of $79-81m if they keep everyone, sign a mini-mid FA and Vet minimum FA. So wave to the Luxury Tax Apron as it flies by.
Glen's declaration that NY plans to re-sign all of its FA means NY will sign someone not very impressive with the mini-mid and NY will be a 6th seed team unless G&J implement an aggressive, creative and intelligent plan and do not deviate from its course.
After years of bad basketball, if fans are cool with having a 6th seed team, power to you, I get it. I was there 8-10years ago with the pre-Melo Sluggets; but I do not care about Sportscenter moments, I want NY to win a title, nothing less than moving forward towards achieving that goal in the next 2-3 years won't be acceptable.
1-3. Amare/Melo/Tyson ($53.06m combined) - I do not expect anything to happen
4. Shump (1.68m) - nothing will happen and frankly NY needs to write him off for a year and let him heal. Shump forthe next 5 years is way more important than Shump next year
5. Toney (2.068) - I envision Toney being traded some point to help numbers fit in a deal
6. Jeffries (Vet Min) - If he's still your first big off the bench, your team is in real trouble; but no reason not to re-sign a team-first vet like JJ.
7-8. Jordan & Harrellson ($1.6m combined) - No reason to not keep around and see what develops, though one or the other, especially Jordan, could get thrown in a deal to make numbers work
Here's where things get interesting
9. Novak ($3m est?) - Ultimate 1 trick pony, does 1 thing exceptionally well (shooting); but nothing else; and as the playoffs demonstrated Novak needs a lot of help to get his shot off. Other teams may want him; but no one will break the bank. And NY offering security may be the bigger selling point to the journeyman Novak.
10. JR (UFA) - I've stood firm in my belief that the Brokyn Nyets will sign JR for $5m/yr... give or take. Thinking JR would take NY at 2.8 over Brokyn at $5m is delusional (and frankly delusional on his part if he chose NY's $$). JR is and always will be more driven by Sportscenter moments than winning a title. JR's performance and behavior this year demonstrated this fact again, like it has every year for the last six (I'm basing this on the years I've directly watched JR and am giving him a pass on his NOH years); just like last year and the year before and year before, etc. Playing for a bad team like Brokyn will allow JR to be the player he has always wanted to be... a star on a big stage, team success be damned. I do wish him well and hope he succeeds... in Brokyn, not NY.
11. Fields ($3-5m est?) - I continue to believe the most effective way to get a Steve Nash will ultimately do a S&T with the Suns. NY does not have the pieces to send back except for maybe sending S&T FIelds back; this would require Nash willing to take $5m and the Suns thinking Fields is worth $5m (not likely)
12. Lin ($5m) - If Deron goes to Dallas expect Brokyn to offer a "poison pill offer sheet" (min 3years $25m) to Lin; same deal with Toronto if they whiff on Nash.
No way should NY offer or match that kind money to Lin; even if you end up being wrong. J&G need to go into the FA period being open to a S&T with Lin or they risk totally skewing the pooch in the deal. You can S&T a RFA up until the point an offer sheet is signed; then it is too late, you have to fish or cut bait at that point.
After that NY will have the $3m mini-mid and Vet-Minimum contracts to offer (no more than est $1.4m). Unless NY can do some re-tooling via S&T and other trades to get their cap$ down, NY won't have the BAE or full MLE available.
Jamal Crawford, Andre Miller, and others of similar ilk are not going to take a discount down to $3m simply for the sake of playing for NY. Battier took a discount for Miami because the Heat just returned from a trip to the NBA Finals. Players desiring a ring will consider a discount with Miami for the same reason; this is not the case with NY. If Crawford was willing he would have signed with NY last year. Of "those" kind of players the only possible I'd see would be Felton just because his post-NY meltdown was pretty epic.
Then of course there's the parade of the "it's closing time at the bar" beauties; players with a name that's at the end of their career or broken players, or the dregs of the "never will-be's" that pop up every year that suddenly appear desirable... for a moment at least. During Melo's 2010 Nuggets I saw so much of that garbage (let's sign Brad Miller, let's go after Shaq, we need Jermaine O’Neal). All were unhealthy and unreliable players and fall were total whiffs on the teams that signed them.
For a team with a fragile and unreliable roster, please just say no to the KMart blow-hards of the league; dude has been neither, healthy, reliable nor relevant since he left NJ.
Foye, OJ, Matt Barnes are some of the versatile and/or skilled players worth pursuing; and of course Nash. Barnes may be possible with NY's $$ . You'd have to be creative to get Foye and you'd have to get real creative for OJ; but I'd rather give OJ a chance at $5m than endure JR at $2.8m.
I'd take a flyer on Al Thornton to see if he's healthy and grown up and be a 2012/13 version of Shawne.
Bigs are needed but I'd have to see how the market develops. Re-treading the old worn-outs does not work and has not worked so don't even bother. NY has to be smarter than that in order to improve.
So Glen and Jimbo, have a relaxing Saturday, enjoy a nice early bird (how ironic is that!!!) dinner, go to bed early, gets some rest, and good luck and go get em at 12:00:01am Sunday.