Good day, friends. This post is mostly going up to serve as yet another overflow thread for comments, but I do have a link and a few overnight thoughts (this stuff with Jeremy Lin is pretty consistently keeping me up at night and invading my dreams) to share.
- First of all, please remember that the Knicks haven't made a decision on Lin's offer sheet yet. I know it seems like a foregone conclusion, but we're learning once again that foregone conclusions mean very little with the Knicks, especially this summer. I'm as resigned as many of you are to the fact that Lin won't be a Knick. That's just not the case yet. And incidentally, we still haven't heard that the Felton deal is complete, either. It couldn't be done until today (something to do with Dan Gadzuric's contract), and as of yet, it hasn't. This is just a reminder that nothing is official yet. Now...
- I highly recommend Will Leitch's post on Lin from this morning. He covers most of the reasonable arguments that have been made for keeping Lin, but it's that second-to-last paragraph in particular that has me solemnly nodding. The paragraph before that, too, actually.
- Building off those paragraphs: If Dolan and/or Grunwald don't think Lin is worth the money, that's fine,. I think they might very well be mistaken, but it's their prerogative to make those evaluations. I also don't think having overpaid (more so) for Eddy Curry and Jalen Rose and a dozen other people in the past means the Knicks should feel obligated to pay more than they're comfortable paying this time. It does make those past moves look even sillier, but whatever. The context of overpayment that I think IS important is that the Knicks have, in my estimation, overpaid for most other people on this roster. Most recently, I think they gave more than they had to for Marcus Camby (to the Rockets, no less), and that they're about to do it again for Raymond Felton and Kurt Thomas. (And they were reportedly also prepared to include Iman Shumpert in a trade for Steve Nash. Just adding that in there).
The explanation we've been given for all of the above-- though, admittedly, not by the Knicks themselves, because they rarely bother to explain their actions-- is that the Knicks are ALL IN and in WIN NOW mode. They've identified a three-year "window", and they're exhausting every resource to make themselves as competitive as possible during that span without respect to the years following. I can be sold on that, but not if they let Jeremy Lin go. If they're willing to sacrifice money and flexibility (including a likely ascent into luxury tax territory no matter what) to pay Jason Kidd and Marcus Camby into their forties, I think they ought to be willing to sacrifice more to pay Jeremy Lin into the beginning of his prime. That, or they're not as committed to winning now as we've heard. Again, I think they will have gone IN enough to field a better team than last year's, but not as IN as they could have gone. Not ALL IN. But really, just read what Will wrote.
- (And if they're that worried about luxury tax and only willing to overpay in part, maybe put those eggs in the starting point guard basket instead of the elderly bench depth basket?)
- Aside from what I believe to be a clear downgrade from Lin to Raymond Felton, I think the Knicks would be putting their new starting point guard in a precarious position. Felton's performance would be compared not just to Lin's last season, but to the loftiest expectations of how he would've performed in New York (and quite possibly some fine work in Houston, to boot). Especially if Felton shows up in anything less than tip-top shape, he's going to come in as the target of a lot of projected spite. And remember that we're talking about a guy who got criticized a lot in Portland last season and didn't exactly take it in stride. I worry that they'd be hanging Felton out to dry.
- Alan Hahn just posted his Fix for today. I haven't read it yet, but I bet it's worth reading.
Yeah. That's what's on my mind right now. I have no news to share, really, but I will be getting in a car for a few hours later today, which all but guarantees that something important will break. In the meantime, leave your thoughts here and please try to be kind one another. I'll post updates if there are updates.