FanPost

Free Agents by the Numbers

Last season was awful even before Phil blew up the roster, and now with a chance to build it according to his own vision he won’t have any excuses for the triangle failing again. So I decided to compile some of the relevant advanced stats and player tracking data (from NBA.com) of this summer's free agents to try to figure out how many choices he really has at each position. It's A LOT of tables, but I thought it was helpful to compare these guys side-by-side like this. Hope you enjoy!

Wings

Carmelo Anthony allowed his man to shoot 42% from three-point range last year. That was second-worst in the ENTIRE LEAGUE among players who defended at least 100 3FGs. I think Phil has to build his roster around Melo as a 4, otherwise the Knicks will have a defense near the bottom once again and it won’t even matter what offense they run.

For this to work Phil’s going to have to get a couple two-way wing players (either through free agency or the draft) that can start alongside Melo. They’re also going to need to rebound (Knicks finished 5th-worst in DREB%) and limit their turnovers (we were 8th-worst in turnover ratio) in order to help improve from last year.

Here's what our wings did last year (at least those who were still on the team at the end). The second table shows how they affected the FG% of the players they guarded. So we like negative numbers!


FG% 3FG% TS% DREB% OREB% Assist Ratio TO Ratio
Galloway 39.9 35.2 48.9 12.3 2.7 19.8 8.1
Hardaway 38.9 34.2 51.2 10.1 0.8 12.8 8.2
Early 35.5 26.2 44.7 13.9 3.8 11.6 12.9
Acy 45.9 30.0 53.3 20.0 6.7 13.6 12.0
Thomas 43.4 33.3 47.8 9.5 4.0 10.9 12.6


Less than 6ft
Less than 10ft
Diff>15ft Diff 2FG% Diff 3FG%
Galloway 0.1 -3.7 -2.2 -3.9 -2.7
Hardaway 1.7 3.8 5.8 5.1 4.8
Early -1.0 -0.7 3.9 0.6 6.3
Acy -6.0 -6.1 -1.5 -1.0 -11.2
Thomas 1.5 0.3 -0.4 -0.2 1.5

Obviously plenty of room to improve defensively. I narrowed down the free agents to those who would immediately help the Knicks in at least two of four categories: TS%, Opp 3FG%, DREB%, A/TO Ratio. You’ll notice I did not include Kawhi Leonard; I really don’t see the Spurs letting their Finals MVP and DPOY walk. I acknowledge that Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler, and Khris Middleton (all RFAs) are also very unlikely to leave their current teams for the Knicks, but I wanted to keep them to use as sort of benchmarks for these tables.

Player Diff 2FG% Diff 3FG% TS% DREB% AST/TO
D Carroll 5.6 -4.3 60.3 14.0 1.57
Danny Green -2.7 2.1 59.6 13.8 1.70
W Matthews -2.9 -2.2 58.6 9.5 1.72
J Butler* 4.2 2.1 58.3 11.1 2.28
Dunleavy -3.6 -0.6 57.3 12.5 1.90
A Anderson** 2.2 -4.4 56.3 10.9 1.38
Middleton* -3.1 -3.4 56.3 13.8 1.61
Deng** 0.4 -1.4 56.1 13.1 1.29
Belinelli 4.7 -1.2 55.3 10.6 1.54
Harris* 0.4 -0.2 55.1 17.3 1.08
Dra Green* -7.2 -4.9 54.0 21.8 2.19
J Green** -0.6 1.2 53.4 12.2 1.24
Afflalo** 0.4 -3.7 53.3 9.6 1.11
Stuckey -0.4 2.9 52.8 12.1 1.86
Crowder* 1.3 -1.9 51.7 14.9 1.92
M Ellis** 0.2 -0.8 50.9 6.3 1.66
W Ellington 1.8 -2.0 50.4 11.7 2.10

By the way, * means RFA, ** means player option

Now let’s focus on the triangle. The offense emphasizes player movement without the basketball, which typically leads to a lot of catch-and-shoot opportunities. As has been endlessly pointed out, these opportunities are typically of the mid-range variety, which is why 3FG% and eFG% don’t necessarily indicate a better fit within the offense. I included the numbers anyway. Here’s a look at the free agents sorted by catch-and-shoot FG%, along with the production the Knicks got from wings last year.


FG% 3FG% eFG%
Danny Green 44.2 44.9 65.2
Stuckey 44.1 39.6 57.2
Middleton* 43.7 42.4 58.9
Dunleavy 42.8 40.3 59.2
J Butler* 42.5 39.1 55.2
D Carroll 41.6 41.6 60.7
Belinelli 41.4 39.9 58.0
W Matthews 39.3 38.9 58.3
Afflalo** 39.0 36.8 53.2
A Anderson** 38.7 37.6 55.8
Harris* 38.1 38.0 53.2
Deng** 37.5 37.6 51.8
W Ellington 36.2 36.2 48.6
Crowder* 36.1 33.3 48.7
Dra Green* 35.8 34.9 51.0
M Ellis** 32.4 29.6 44.1
J Green** 32.2 31.5 45.6
KNICKS --- --- ---
Anthony 44.3 35.2 54.1
Thomas 41.9 35.0 45.2
Galloway 39.2 37.2 52.5
Acy 38.3 34.0 43.2
Hardaway 35.3 35.0 50.5
Early 26.3 26.8 36.3

Another area Phil seems to want to focus on is penetration. Here’s a similar look at how effective these players were in driving the basketball to the rim (PPD = Points Per Drive, DPG = Drives per Game).


FG% Player PPD Team PPD DPG
Stuckey 41.7 0.77 1.28 3.9
J Green** 44.0 0.91 1.26 3.5
D Carroll 49.4 0.72 1.24 2.5
J Butler* 39.6 0.69 1.24 5.1
M Ellis** 49.0 0.69 1.17 8.3
Belinelli 46.7 0.69 1.15 1.3
Dra Green* 41.5 0.65 1.15 2
Middleton* 45.5 0.59 1.11 2.7
Deng** 48.9 0.71 1.11 2.8
Danny Green 39.7 0.45 1.10 2
A Anderson** 55.9 0.68 1.08 2.5
Crowder* 37.5 0.77 1.08 1.3
W Matthews 51.0 0.63 1.05 1.9
Afflalo** 36.4 0.57 1.04 2.3
Dunleavy 35.1 0.62 1.00 1.3
Harris* 43.7 0.77 0.97 3.9
W Ellington 27.0 0.39 0.94 1.8
KNICKS --- --- --- ---
Thomas 58.6 1.00 1.23 1.3
Anthony 44.8 0.76 1.20 2.5
Hardaway 39.1 0.71 1.08 2.4
Early 37.5 0.69 1.08 1.3
Galloway 33.3 0.61 1.04 2.8
Acy 50.0 0.75 1.00 0.4

Does Stuckey’s offensive fit (based on last year’s stats, a contract year I might add) overcome his unimpressive defensive numbers? I don’t think so. I’d much rather have Marco Belinelli or Demarre Caroll should we strike out on the top 5 wing targets this summer (Draymond Green, Danny Green, Butler, Middleton, and Matthews). Tobias Harris, who racked up nice Player Points per Drive, would also be a better option than Stuckey. However, if the Knicks somehow acquire defensive studs at PG and SF, maybe they end up signing Stuckey and hide him on defense…

Not included in these tables was Gerald Green, who had nice catch-and-shoot and driving statistics but did not defend three-pointers, rebound, or take care of the ball well enough to make it.

Point Guards


Diff 2FG% Diff 3FG% FG% 3FG% TS% Assist Rate TO Rate
Dragic** 1.6 -0.8 50.1 34.7 57.7 21.5 10.6
Knight* 1.2 0.0 42.2 38.9 54.3 21.9 12.6
Jackson* 3.0 0.6 43.4 29.9 51.1 26.6 10.7
Beverly* 2.6 -2.9 38.3 35.6 50.9 23.0 10.0
Rondo 5.4 -4.4 42.6 31.4 44.8 37.7 14.7
KNICKS --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Shved 4.3 10.7 40.3 37.1 54.1 19.1 8.6
Calderon 9.5 14.5 41.5 41.5 51.9 30.9 11.7
Larkin 2.4 -0.2 43.3 30.2 50.4 29.1 10.7
Galloway -3.9 -2.8 39.9 35.2 48.9 19.8 8.1

For a closer look at how bad Calderon and Shved's defense really was:


Less than 6ft Less than 10ft Diff > 15ft Diff 2FG% Diff 3FG%
Rondo 12.2 7.8 -2.2 5.4 -4.4
Beverly* 6.7 6.2 -1.2 2.6 -2.8
Dragic** 7.6 3.7 -0.6 1.6 -0.7
Knight* 12.0 7.5 0.2 1.3 0.0
Jackson* 5.5 8.0 0.3 3.0 0.5
Knicks --- --- --- --- ---
Galloway 0.1 -3.7 -2.2 -4.0 -2.8
Larkin 7.4 8.1 -1.9 2.4 -0.2
Shved 18.8 10.2 5.4 4.3 10.8
Calderon 17.1 16.5 9.6 9.5 14.5

I’m not sure I can survive a full season with a starting point guard putting up defensive numbers like those...why I'd say Galloway would be a better starter than Calderon at this point.

As for C&S...

FG% 3FG% eFG%
Knight* 38.9 40.0 57.1
Beverly* 37.1 38.1 55.7
Dragic** 38.8 37.6 54.2
Rondo 35.6 34.6 44.2
Jackson* 28.2 27.3 40.8
KNICKS --- --- ---
Shved 42.9 44.1 64.3
Larkin 38.6 40.0 52.5
Galloway 39.2 37.2 52.5
Calderon 38.9 38.1 52.2

And on drives...

FG% Player PPD Team PPD Drives PG
Dragic** 54.7 0.52 1.21 8.2
Jackson* 49.9 0.65 1.19 8.8
Knight* 42.0 0.49 1.06 7.0
Rondo 49.1 0.43 1.01 7.5
Beverly* 43.4 0.44 0.98 5.0
Knicks --- --- --- ---
Calderon 36.8 0.25 1.10 2.0
Shved 43.9 0.68 1.04 7.4
Galloway 33.3 0.61 1.04 2.8
Larkin 43.0 0.44 1.00 3.9

By the way, Shved’s catch-and-shoot numbers are inflated due to small sample size (he only played in 19 games for us and averaged only 2.2 C&S field goal attempts per game).

I don’t know about any of you, but I think I’d prefer either sticking with Galloway or improving the point guard position through the draft. I think those are both better options than overpaying for any of the free agent PGs, and there’s too many holes on the Knicks’ roster to have money tied up waiting on a team to match qualifying offers for RFAs (Knight, Jackson, and Beverly are all RFAs, Dragic has a player option). Of the free agents there I like Knight the best, but it's gonna take a ton of money to pry him away from PHX and if it doesn't work out we're gonna be way behind on the rest of free agency. Who knows, if Galloway improves his finishes on drives as well as his jumpshot, he could be almost as effective as any of the free agent options, he’d be much cheaper, and he’d allow the Knicks to pursue other needs in free agency...or maybe we draft Mudiay or Russell.

Also, by the way, I am NOT a fan of signing Rondo. His jumper has been flawed for years and his antics during the playoffs this year were disgusting.

Centers

Opp FG% at Rim REB% per chance Contest REB% TS% DREB% OREB%
Aldrich 51.4 59.0% 40.9% 51.3 28.0 11.2
Amundson 51.6 56.8% 45.9% 44.2 21.1 10.9
Bargnani 57.2 56.7% 33.9% 52.7 14.8 4.3
JA Smith 49.7 50.7% 33.0% 49.7 15.2 6.2

Did you guys know Jason Smith was our BEST rim protetor?? Not surprisingly though, his rebounding numbers leave a lot to be desired.

Diff < 6ft Diff < 10ft Diff > 15ft Diff 2FG% Diff 3FG%
Aldrich -3.6 0.6 7.0 1.8 15.5
Amundson -6.9 -3.3 4.2 -0.8 9.4
Bargnani 1.5 3.3 10.7 6.0 9.9
JA Smith -0.8 -0.7 1.3 -0.7 1.1

Obviously a center who can defend and rebound their position well would be a huge upgrade over Smith and Bargs. These are the free agent options:

Opp FGP at rim REB% per chance Contested REB% TS% DREB% OREB%
Asik 51.1 60.9% 45.3% 54.5 28.9 13.9
B Lopez** 49.7 61.5% 53.7% 55.8 17.0 11.3
Jefferson** 54.7 66.2% 30.9% 50.0 26.0 5.4
Jordan 48.5 73.6% 44.6% 63.8 32.3 16.2
Kanter* 56.9 57.3% 51.3% 56.4 21.0 14.7
Koufos 46.9 59.5% 41.9% 53.0 24.6 9.7
M Gasol 49.4 65.0% 39.1% 55.8 22.4 5.1
Monroe 55.1 64.1% 41.2% 54.9 25.4 11.1
Ro Lopez 48.0 53.5% 51.5% 57.4 12.3 12.8
Wright 49.5 54.3% 46.3% 66.0 14.8 9.9

Less than 6ft Less than 10ft Diff > 15ft Diff 2pters Diff 3ptrs
Asik -1.8 -0.2 -2.5 0.9 -1.0
B Lopez** -4.7 -3.5 0.0 -1.4 -5.1
Jefferson** 0.7 -1.9 11.6 1.8 4.8
Jordan -2.8 -4.4 1.8 -1.5 -2.4
Kanter* 1.2 1.2 3.8 2.5 1.1
Koufos -8.5 -7.4 0.2 -3.6 -3.1
M Gasol -3.1 -5.0 -3.2 -4.2 -1.4
Monroe 0.1 0.8 0.5 1.4 -2.7
Ro Lopez -5.1 -5.3 1.0 -3.3 5.7
Wright -2.9 -2.2 2.9 -1.0 11.4

With Melo playing in the strong-side post of the triangle, centers with elite post-up skills shouldn’t necessarily be the biggest targets. I’d say spot-up capabilities and passing are more important in terms of fitting into the triangle, given that the Knicks’ centers had more passes per 36 minutes and spotted up more frequently than the majority of the free agent centers available. Unfortunately, both passing and spot-up statistics from the center position are greatly affected by the specific offensive system, so it’s pretty hard to compare these guys to each other.

Given all that, I say Phil just goes for the best center he thinks he can get and worry about teaching him the offense later. Koufos and Asik are both solid rebounders and defenders but are basically zeroes on offense. Kanter might fit the best offensively but he doesn’t provide much on defense. Greg Monroe's post game (he was also one of the better passers among the FA centers) might be interesting if the Knicks want to interchange him and Melo in the low post, but pairing his lack of rim protection (though he's an above-average post defender) with the guys we already have (Melo, THJ, Calderon) would be a step backward from last year's shitty defense. Personally I’d love to see Phil sign Robin Lopez since he’s the closest thing to a two-way player the Knicks could land without breaking the bank and I think he could complement Melo like he did LaMarcus Aldridge.