FanPost

We Need Wings: Crabbe vs. Bazemore Offense Comparison

The 2016 NBA Draft is coming up very soon. We don't have our lottery pick because we once decided that Andrea Bargnani was good at basketball and we don't have our 2nd round pick because we once decided we had to give up assets to require Raymond Felton. Good times.

What we do have to look forward to is having cap space. Now as Knicks fans, this is a foreign concept that we became familiar with last summer. To refresh everybody's memory, what cap space allows the Knicks to do is pay money to players in order to entice them to leave their current teams for the Knicks. It's something we may need to be accustomed too with our likely flexibility moving forward year-to-year and the impending cap jump the next 2 summers.

I previously wrote a couple of fanposts taking a look at both Evan Fournier and Tyler Johnson.

Fournier and Johnson Offense Comparison and Fournier and Johnson Defense Comparison.

That's a shameless plug for you guys to read those, but I'm shameless, so fuck you.

Let's take a look at couple of other wings that will be available as free agents shall we?

To refresh everybody on how the Knicks sucked at shooting from many areas of the floor last season let's take a look.

Knicks Shots

What we get out of this is that the Knicks weren't particularly good in the two most efficient scoring areas of the floor, from 3 and at the rim. We were well below league average in terms of assists, FG% and 3Pt% as we can see here.

Can either Crabbe or Bazemore help us in any of these areas? Let's take a look.

Allen Crabbe Shot Chart:

Crabbe Savant

For whatever reason vorped.com doesn't have shot charts for anybody on Portland, so I used this one from nbasavant.com.

As we can see from this chart Crabbe is a lights out shooter and comfortably above league average from the left corner 3, above the break 3, mid-range, restricted area and at the rim. In particular his skill at the above the break 3 on nearly 200 attempts last season at an elite 39.3% would be extremely useful along with his 70.3% at the rim, though he doesn't get there enough. I suspect this is partly influenced by his role as a spot up shooter and playing with Lillard and CJ.

For his career Crabbe is a 38.5% 3 point shooter on 384 total attempts. The sample isn't massive, but it's big enough that you can feel comfortable with the assumption that an above league average marksmen, bordering on being elite.

Kent Bazemore Shot Chart:

Bazemore Vorped

Bazemore Savant

We can see from this chart that Bazemore isn't particularly a great shooter from the perimeter. He shoots above average from the corners, but he's really quite poor from above the break. He's probably not somebody you want creating for himself frequently given his struggles from mid-range and in the restricted area around the elbows. His below league average finishing at the rim is also concerning, though for his career mark is right around the league average.

For his career Bazemore is a 35.1% 3 point shooter on 599 total attempts. He finished this current season at 35.7% from beyond the arc overall and while he's solidly above league average from the corners, he's just not very good outside of that. He's not great finishing at the rim, though he does get there quite frequently which is a good thing.

Crabbe Shot Distribution:

Shot Type Drives/Game Frequency% FGM per game FGA per game eFG% 3P% FG% PPP Percentile Pass% AST% SF%
Catch and Shoot NA NA 1.7 4 60.3 42.2 43.4 NA NA NA NA NA
Drives 0.9 NA 0.2 0.5 NA NA 38.1 NA NA 29.3 5.3 NA
Pull Up NA NA 1.1 2.8 42.6 15.4 41.7 NA NA NA NA NA
Transition NA 17.9 0.8 1.6 61 NA 52 1.19 69.9 NA NA 6.4
Isolation NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Ball Handler PNR NA 9.2 0.3 0.8 37.7 NA 36.9 0.75 44 NA NA 2.8
Post-Up NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Spot-Up NA 32.5 1.3 2.9 61.4 NA 46.6 1.19 93.7 NA NA 3.9
Dribble Hand Off NA 10.8 0.3 0.9 38.2 NA 37.5 0.76 36 NA NA 7.1
Cut NA 4.3 0.3 0.4 72.4 NA 72.4 1.47 88.7 NA NA 11.8
Off Screen NA 16.3 0.5 1.3 44.4 NA 39.8 0.93 52 NA NA 7

Just a few things for clarity:

1. The frequency% is a gauge of what percentage of possessions that particular play type is being executed by the player when in the game.

2. Pass% is the percentage of times on that particular shot type a player passes.

3. AST% is the percentage of times on that particular shot type a player records an assist.

4. SF% is the percentage of times on that particular shot type that a player draws a shooting foul

5. For any of the stats that are not available for that shot type I have marked as NA as they weren't available on the NBA.com/stats page and I didn't feel like making multiple tables that would have looked cleaner and better.

Some things to note are that a lot of these sample sizes are small. His entire distribution indicates that Crabbe is not a player who creates much for himself offensively. 54.5% of his shots come as either spot ups or in transition. This lack of shot creation is also reflected in the fact that he didn't have enough of a sample in post ups or isolation to qualify.

He is excellent at both spotting up and scoring in transition. His finishing ability in transition (would have been better than any Knick guard or wing last year) as well as his slightly above average numbers in off screen action leads me to believe he could develop in to a more aggressive and able scorer off the dribble.

He's still very raw in terms of his ability to create as is evidenced from his underwhelming numbers both as the ball handler in PNR and in dribble hand offs. He has excellent size and is a solid enough athlete that I think these can improve, but I find it highly unlikely he'll ever be good enough to be the 1st or 2nd option on a competitive team. He's not a prolific passer so playing him with a PG that can allow him to play off the ball and focus on improving his ability to create his own shot will help, especially early on.

Given his strengths as a cutter and in spot ups he profiles as an excellent supporting piece to Melo and KP and his strength in finishing in transition is something we desperately need. The risk with him is that he never quite develops in to a player capable of creating his own offense and handling more usage, but at 24 years old, Crabbe still has upside and room to develop those areas of his game.

Per Game last 2 seasons:

From To G GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% eFG% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2015 2016 132 17 21.1 2.8 6.3 .450 1.1 2.8 .384 1.8 3.5 .503 .535 0.8 1.0 .853 0.3 1.9 2.2 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.6 2.0

7.6

Advanced last 2 seasons:

From To G MP PER TS% 3PAr FTr ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% OWS DWS WS WS/48 OBPM DBPM BPM VORP
2015 2016 132 2788 11.4 .563 .445 .155 1.3 9.8 5.6 7.4 1.5 0.8 8.2 15.2 3.6 2.0 5.6 .096 0.0 -0.6 -0.6 1.0

Per-36 last 2 seasons:

From To G GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2015 2016 132 17 2788 4.8 10.7 .450 1.8 4.8 .384 3.0 6.0 .503 1.4 1.7 .853 0.4 3.3 3.7 1.8 1.1 0.4 1.0 3.4 12.9

Bazemore Shot Distribution:

Shot Type Drives/Game Frequency% FGM per game FGA per game eFG% 3P% FG% PPP Percentile Pass% AST% SF%
Catch and Shoot NA NA 1.3 3.3 58.3 39.3 40.1 NA NA NA NA NA
Drives 4.4 NA 1 2.3 NA NA 43.4 NA NA 28.1 7.3 NA
Pull Up NA NA 0.5 1.8 34.9 27.1 27.9 NA NA NA NA NA
Transition NA 23.4 1.2 2.2 61.1 NA 54.8 1.07 41.8 NA NA 10.1
Isolation NA 4.8 0.2 0.4 54.5 NA 48.5 1 88 NA NA 13.9
Ball Handler PNR NA 15.1 0.4 1.4 31.6 NA 30.1 0.59 15.9 NA NA 6.4
Post-Up NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Spot-Up NA 30.1 1.3 3.2 51.9 NA 38.7 0.99 59.7 NA NA 4.3
Dribble Hand Off NA 6.8 0.2 0.6 37 NA 30.4 0.68 18.2 NA NA 9.5
Cut NA 8.9 0.6 0.9 60.9 NA 60.9 1.16 41 NA NA 9.8
Off Screen NA 4.6 0.3 0.5 68.1 NA 52.8 1.28 94.7 NA NA 9.3

I'm not as bullish about Bazemore. We see here that he doesn't excel in any of the shot types he most frequently takes. Despite being quite athletic he's a below average finisher on the break and off cuts and his relatively average finishing at the rim for his career (60.5% 0-3 feet per B-Ref) doesn't inspire confidence that this is far from the norm.

He does rate highly as an isolation scorer, but the sample is small and Atlanta not giving him the leeway to isolate indicates that it's likely an outlier.

Bazemore's biggest asset is his ability to create for others as he's averaged 2.6 assists per-36 over the course of his time in ATL, including 3.0 assists per-36 this season, solid for a wing player. This comes at a coast as he is often reckless and sloppy with his passing which offsets his positive contributions as he has also averaged 2.2 turnovers per-36 in his last 2 years.

He also is an active player defensively with his hands, averaging 1.6 steals per-36 as a Hawk

Baze is a good player that is about average across the board in his scoring efficiency and overall contribution. That's a positive as you can credibly use him in many situations and roles, but he lacks any elite skill offensively despite good length and athleticism. He will be entering his prime in his age 27 season next year, but his development seems to be close to an end at this point. What you see is what you're likely to get.

Per Game last 2 seasons:

From To G GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% eFG% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2015 2016 150 78 22.7 3.1 7.0 .437 1.0 2.9 .359 2.0 4.1 .491 .511 1.2 1.7 .729 0.3 3.7 4.0 1.7 1.0 0.5 1.4 2.0 8.4

Advanced last 2 seasons:

From To G MP PER TS% 3PAr FTr ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% OWS DWS WS WS/48 OBPM DBPM BPM VORP
2015 2016 150 3407 11.9 .541 .414 .238 1.6 17.5 9.8 11.1 2.2 1.7 15.3 18.2 0.0 5.7 5.6 .080 -2.0 1.5 -0.5 1.3

Per-36 last 2 seasons:

From To G GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2015 2016 150 78 3407 4.9 11.2 .437 1.7 4.6 .359 3.2 6.5 .491 1.9 2.7 .729 0.5 5.8 6.4 2.6 1.6 0.8 2.2 3.2 13.3

Crabbe is an RFA this summer, so Portland will have matching rights on him. Ideally he wouldn't command more than $13m starting, but to get him away from Portland you're going to have to overpay for him. $17m starting would be a competitive offer. The downside is the risk that Crabbe doesn't develop his off the dribble game and shot creation very much and tops out best as a solid 3 and D starting wing. At only 24 years old the downside risk might be worth the upside he presents.

Bazemore is a UFA this summer and is entering his prime at age 27 next year. He is at least looking at Demarre Carroll money around $15m/yr if not more and with the demand for wings around the league, his solid all around play and unrestricted status should give him many suitors this summer. The downside for him is simply that he's not as good as the contract he gets will be and that without a lot of upside he disappoints the team that signs him expecting him to be a major difference maker.

Note: The shot distribution charts were compiled off of data from nba.com/stats, the shot charts were pulled from nbasavant.com and vorped.com and the per game, advanced and per-36 numbers were from basketball-reference.com