The Essentials:
Hawks (9-6) at Wizards (2-11)
7 p.m.
Verizon Center
CSN

Previously:
November 19: Hawks 91, Wizards 87.

Notable Hawks numbers this season (pound the salt):
14th (5th East) in expected winning percentage (.536)
23rd (12th) in pace factor (93.6 possessions per game)
T7th (T2nd) in offensive efficiency/offensive rating (108.5)
23rd (11th) in defensive efficiency/defensive rating (107.4)

Notable Hawks numbers last season:
18th (9th East) in expected winning percentage (.436)
18th (8th) in pace factor (91.1 possessions per game)
16th (6th) in offensive efficiency/offensive rating (106.9)
18th (8th) in defensive efficiency/defensive rating (108.9)

Key Links (drop any others in the comments)
Peachtree Hoops
Zaza's Playground
Sekou Smith's blog 
Wizards Insider: The Other Side: Atlanta Hawks

Starting Lineups:
Hawks
PG: Mike Bibby
SG: Joe Johnson
SF: Marvin Williams
PF: Al Horford
C: Zaza Pachulia

Wizards
PG: Dee Brown
SG: DeShawn Stevenson
SF: Caron Butler
PF: Antawn Jamison
C: JaVale McGee

Tonight's Lines
Hawks at Wizards: Wizards by 1.5
Over/Under on Total Scoring: 199.5

Long preview!

Glass glass glass: Our first game against the Hawks was one of the many early-season games where we were pounded on the defensive glass.  Atlanta grabbed an obscene 42.3% of its misses in the November 19 game, which essentially was the reason they won since they only posted a 44% eFG% for the game.  We didn't spend much time with Darius Songaila in at center in that game either, so it's not like the problem is going to completely go away.  Atlanta's ninth in the league in offensive rebound percentage, after all.

Zaza Pachulia had a lot to do with Atlanta's rebounding dominance last time.  He had 18 boards himself, eight of which were offensive.  The good news is that maybe Mike Woodson will help us out and sit him the entire fourth quarter like he did in Atlanta's five-point loss to Toronto last night. 

With 3:32 left in the third quarter, Zaza Pachulia went to the bench. The Hawks were up 2, in no small part thanks to the 8 offensive and 9 defensive rebounds Pachulia had already grabbed. By the end of the third quarter, the Hawks would be down by 4 points. In the fourth quarter, the Hawks would never regain the lead. As a team they would grab, in the fourth quarter, just 7 defensive rebounds. Toronto would grab 15 fourth quarter rebounds, 4 of them offensive. Pachulia would never leave the bench.

So...yeah...maybe that'll happen again.

Three-point test: It's only 15 games into the season for Atlanta, yet they lead the league in three-point shooting percentage.  Atlanta is hitting 42 percent of its threes this year, powered by the dynamic foursome of Maurice Evans (49.1%), Marvin Williams (45.7%), Mike Bibby (43.5%) and Joe Johnson (39.6%).  The Wizards' defense under Eddie Jordan treated the three-point line as if it was filled with land mines.  This will be a good test to see how far the team has come in eradicating its bad habits under Ed Tapscott.

Mid-November blues: So Atlanta is 9-6, but they are 3-6 since starting the season with six straight victories.  A lot of that has been the absence of Josh Smith, but perhaps Atlanta just isn't that good.  Their three wins during this stretch came by 4 over us, by five over the Bobcats and by six over the Bucks.  Not exactly impressive.

What's the problem?  For one, Atlanta's not defending anymore.  They were outstanding through four games, but sit just 23rd in efficiency right now.  I imagine that'll pick up with Smith's healthy return, but either way, we're seeing a regression back to the mean. 

The other issue is Joe Johnson.  As if he wanted to prove my assertion that he's about as far away from a first option as Pluto is to Earth, he's gone out and shot 33 percent from the field in his last five games.  That has prompted some people to go out and argue that the problem is that Joe Johnson doesn't get superstar treatment from the referees.  Right. 

Tired or not, the problem is that Joe Johnson isn't anywhere close to a superstar.  He's a decent third option who can do some things well, but can't be the go-to scorer on a good team.  This is what we call "regression to the mean."  JJ's a nice player, but without Josh Smith, he's being asked to do way too much.  The more JJ shoots tonight, the better off we'll be.

Pushing it: Atlanta's coming off a grueling five-point loss to the Raptors last night in Toronto, so they're making the journey down to D.C. in one day.  Atlanta's bench didn't exactly get in much action either.  Johnson played 44 minutes.  Williams played 40.  Al Horford played 37.  Mike Bibby played 35.  Meanwhile, Flip Murray, Solomon Jones and Acie Law played a combined 27 minutes.  They may be tired, so pushing the pace early is key.

My Firefox plug-in isn't working, so I'll just have to go off my subjective feeling that we've played faster in these last two games under Ed Tapscott.  That may be because we played Golden State and Orlando, two teams who are in the top 10 in pace this season, but Tapscott has said that he wants to run more.  Running will be key tonight, since Atlanta's a slow-paced team that is tired and on the second game of a back-to-back.

I'm going out to dinner tonight with the family, so I'll probably catch this on delay.  For those watching, comment here.

GO WIZARDS!

One of the nice things about Ed Tapscott era is that, like Eddie Jordan, Ed is pretty vocal about what he expects from the team.  He doesn't sugercoat with his soundbytes, he's nuianced and he seems to treat reporters well.  That's good for them, but it's also good for us because we can clearly tell what he's trying to do with this team. 

I've now had a chance to watch two games and read tons of Tapscott soundbytes, so here's my read on each of his plans.

The 8-man +2 rotation.

One of the immediate things Tapscott did was to turn to what he called the "eight plus two plan."  The idea is that there are eight guys who will play solid minutes every game no matter the circumstance, with about two of the remaining four guys on the team playing based on "matchups."  The question of whether a coach should play only the same guys every game or base his substitution patterns on "feel" is a continuous debate among coaches.  Eddie Jordan, as we know, veered more toward the "feel" way of thinking, which drew a lot of ire among all of us.  

It seems Tapscott is trying to compromise.  On the one hand, there will be some guys who play every game.  But since eight players over the course of the entire season is a pretty tight rotation, he'll give two other guys a chance every game.  This serves two purposes.  One, it keeps the end of the bench guys active and ready in practice.  Two, it allows Ed to do some coaching instead of becoming predictable.  In my mind, it's a pretty good plan.

The tricky part, though, is figuring out who makes up both of these groups.  Eddie's problem this year was never playing his bench, it was treating all his bench players the same in terms of minutes.  It was that inconsistency that bugged me in particular, because it's hard to expect players to adjust to situations like the coach can.  This was a big deal with Andray Blatche, but he was hardly the only one.  Darius Songaila, for example, was asked to play center, which didn't suit his strengths.  Ditto for Nick Young and Juan Dixon at the point.  Part of this is the roster imbalance, but part of it was poor deployment of subs. 

Based on two games, it seems that the three bench guys part of the eight-man rotation are Nick Young, Andray Blatche and Darius Songaila.  After that, though, it gets murky.  Dominic McGuire has played pretty consistent minutes both games, and Tapscott is clearly trying to use him more, so one has to wonder if he's jumped into the top eight.  Since he's been healthy, the same goes for Antonio Daniels.  That's ten guys who play decent minutes already.  Then, there's Etan Thomas and Juan Dixon, who play situational minutes.  They're clearly part of the +2, but who is joining them? 

The concept of "eight plus two" is solid, but there's still work to be done to establish that.

Turning Dominic McGuire into a defensive stopper

It seems like that's a big-time goal for Tapscott.  Here's what he said about Taser:

"I'm asking him to fold himself into that role. Every team is role-defined and if you can find a niche within the team, you can find him some playing time. If he'll embrace that and go at it that way, he'll always find some time on the floor. We always need a 6-foot-8 inch athletic guy who can defend on the perimeter and can go back and get us rebounding.
The nice thing about what Dom does is Dom also has a knack for getting offensive rebounds and offensive rebounds lead to extra possessions. If he can do those things for us, he knows that he'll get a chance to play."

This doesn't surprise me in the slightest.  You know Tapscott is going to try to improve the defense, and McGuire has the tools to be a good defender.  I assume Eddie didn't play McGuire because of McGuire's shooting and dribbling deficiencies, which kind of annoyed me, to be honest.  Taser can be horrendous offensively, but like Tapscott said, he grabs offensive rebounds and showed a knack for passing in the Summer League. 

I like this move.  McGuire will embrace it and hopefully give Caron Butler more rest.  McGuire as a ninth man is better than Etan or Pech.

Speaking of Butler...

Running the offense exclusively through Caron and Antawn

Heard about this from David Aldridge on TNT.  Apparently, Tapscott called those two into his office, told them they will be the offensive focal points so long as they become leaders and left it at that.  It's clear Caron is upset by the loss of Eddie Jordan, so this was definitely a necessary thing to do on his end.  Ditto for Jamison, to be honest. 

But there are concerns.  Number one, Caron is starting to shot-jack a bit.  He had a wonderful game yesterday, but he broke the offense way too much to do it.  His passing has fallen off a bit, as his assist percentage has dropped from 21.7% to 18.3%.  He had six assists, but also had four turnovers in addition to his 18 shots.  Part of that is the lack of options around him, but either way, Tapscott needs to remind Caron that it's on him to get people involved as well as score.

With Jamison, the shots that Tapscott references must come inside rather than outside.  I hope Jamison doesn't take this to mean that he has free reign to take quick threes.

But either way, it's necessary.  You have to worry about the young guys on the team becoming jealous, but they should be encouraged to grow into their roles before they do more.

Going big

Tapscott's been experimenting with more lineups that include Caron Butler playing shooting guard.  It's probably a necessity with the number of bigs we need to develop, so Eddie Jordan certainly shouldn't have been so stubborn about keeping Butler at small forward.  That said, I've said many times that Andray Blatche looks very uncomforable playing power forward.  Putting him there more often doesn't strike me as a way to get the most out of him. 

However, I'll live with them because we need to get more out of our young bigs.  There also isn't exactly a ton of talent in that backcourt.

Andray Blatche

I love what I'm hearing from Tapscott with Blatche.  The thing is, whenever I've defended the dude, it's not because I don't realize how badly he's played.  He had a big opportunity to take that center job and didn't do it.  On the other hand, the Blatche package is incredibly complex.  It's never as simple as the "he doesn't get it, so sit him until he does" approach that Eddie Jordan took.  In his three-plus years in D.C., Blatche has been shot, been handed inconsistent minutes and has played the three, four and five positions at different points.  He's been asked to be both a wing man and an inside player.  He's been forced to defend everyone from Carmelo Anthony to Yao Ming.  For a young guy whose head isn't exactly screwed on perfectly straight, that's a lot to ask. 

That's why this quote in particular stood out to me.

I think often times that 'Dre has had some experiences of a 22-year old guy. Not that it's making that an excuse, it's just a reality. And so, that's the process we are in: trying to keep focus and concentration on the marathon of a season and that is a learning process. I'm sure if you talk to Antawn Jamison about that, he'll tell you it took years for him to get to the point where he is now as a professional where I can almost put in ink what he's going to be able to give me on any given night. That's the process any young player goes through.

In the same sentence, Tapscott is referencing the difficult things Blatche went through while also making it very clear what Blatche needs to do.  One could read this as Tapscott treating Blatche too softly, but remember, these are professional athletes with five-year contracts.  You have to treat them all differently, which is something Eddie Jordan struggled to do by the end of his tenure.  We'll see what kind of effect Tapscott has on Blatche, but my feeling is that it'll be positive. 

More than anything, Tapscott's communication skills stand out to me.  It's still early, so there's plenty of time for the players to get sick of his act, but I love that he  seems to treat them all as individuals.  He seems a little more patient, which is a big thing since we shouldn't exactly be thinking playoffs right now. 

Big picture

It's early, but I'm a fan of Ed.  He strikes me as the perfect interm coach for this roster right now.  He'll ride his two stars while publicly conveying specific roles for the young guys.  While it's true that the young guys somewhat unfairly tuned out Eddie Jordan, it is what it is.  Tapscott seems like a different voice for them and that'll help trememdously.  It also seems like Tapscott won't alienate the veterans, though obviously that group is more fragile at this point. 

The key to me is Tapscott's communication skills.  Like Ivan, I think that's a huge plus.  Ivan wrote that either Tapscott knows his hoops or knows how to talk about hoops.  I suspect it's mostly the latter, but that's what this team needs anyway.  For all his strengths, I've always questioned how well Eddie communicated with many of his players (see Haywood, Brendan).  I don't see that being a problem with Tapscott.

In the short term, I think we'll keep losing a lot, because without Haywood, we'll never play the type of defense Ed wants us to play.  There will be games where we just don't compete as well.  But Ed strikes me as patient and strikes me as someone who will develop the young talent on this team.  That'll serve the next coach of this team well, whether it's Ed or someone else.

Dwight Howard's too big.  Andray Blatche committed too many fouls.  JaVale McGee's too weak.  Etan Thomas is too small. Orlando's shooters are too good.

Maybe I'm just full from dinner tonight, but I'm not worried about the blowout loss to Orlando.  Ed Tapscott isn't going to magically turn us into a super team overnight.  We can't stop Orlando without Brendan Haywood, because we then have to double on Dwight Howard, which leaves their shooters open.  The end result is that Orlando kills us offensively.

Oh well.  Hopefully we beat Atlanta.

The Essentials:
Magic (11-4) at Wizards (2-10)
 8 p.m.
Verizon Center
TNT

Previously:
November 8: Magic 106, Wizards 81.

Notable Magic numbers this season (pound the salt):
4th (3rd East) in expected winning percentage (.675)
9th (4th) in pace factor (93.6 possessions per game)
16th (9th) in offensive efficiency/offensive rating (105.2)
3rd (2nd) in defensive efficiency/defensive rating (100.2)

Notable Magic numbers last season:
T5th (3rd East) in expected winning percentage (.680)
9th (2nd) in pace factor (93.4 possessions per game)
7th (2nd) in offensive efficiency/offensive rating (111.3)
6th (3rd) in defensive efficiency/defensive rating (105.5)

Key Links (drop any others in the comments)
Third Quarter Collapse
Believing in Magic
Magic BasketBlog
Third Quarter Collapse's game thread

Starting Lineups:
Magic
PG: Jameer Nelson
SG: Mickael Pietrus
SF: Hedo Turkoglu
PF: Rashard Lewis
C: Dwight Howard

Wizards
PG: Dee Brown
SG: DeShawn Stevenson
SF: Caron Butler
PF: Antawn Jamison
C: JaVale McGee

Tonight's Lines
Wizards at Magic: Magic by 3.5
Over/Under on Total Scoring: 198

GO WIZARDS!

There's not much more to say.  Spend time with your families instead of wasting away arguing on this site.  I'd be honored if you were to tell me BF makes a difference in your lives, but Truth, Jake and I can never come close to the people who love you.  Thanksgiving is a time to remember that truth.

I'll have a game thread for the Orlando game up by 7:30 tonight.  Until then, enjoy your holiday!

Box Score
Game Flow
Post Recap
Times Recap
Wizards Insider
Golden State of Mind is pissed
Truth About It
SF Gate
DC Pro Sports Report
Nice to hear from you, Wilbon

Highest Plus/Minus: Antawn Jamison (+25 in 38:04)
Lowest Plus/Minus: Juan Dixon (0 in 13:18)
Best Five Man Unit: Juan Dixon, Nick Young, Dominic McGuire, Antawn Jamison, JaVale McGee (+6 for a 2:06 period in second quarter)
Worst Five Man Unit: Juan Dixon, Nick Young, Dominic McGuire, Darius Songaila, JaVale McGee (-5 in garbage time in the fourth)

Four Factors:

I can't think of a better debut for Ed Tapscott.  He pushed all the right buttons, playing all the right guys in the right spots.  He kept Darius Songaila at power forward, tethered Etan Thomas to the bench and trusted Andray Blatche.  Tapscott went with a big lineup with Caron Butler at the 2 and relegated Juan Dixon to mostly scrap minutes.  This is exactly the rotation I want to see for the rest of the season.

Defensively, we were obviously awesome as well, though I can't really figure out the breakdown between better schemes, better effort and Warrior ineptitide.  I liked our hybrid Princeton/other stuff offense as well, though again a lot of that was Golden State's problem.

But the story of the game was obviously Andray Blatche.  Twenty-five points, 12 rebounds, 5 assists and 5 blocks.  Those are numbers we probably aren't going to see again, but the bigger question is whether Dray's turned a corner with this game.  Is he really better off without Eddie Jordan, or was this just your typical great game in a sea of inconsistency?  

I think it's pretty obvious that Blatche plays his best when he does less.  Less dribbling, less pump-faking, etc.  He also does his best when he catches the ball in a consistent spot every possession, whether it's the high post, low post or somewhere else.  My feeling is that he's also best when he's screening and rolling/popping instead of dribbling, because it gives him space he doesn't have to create by dribbling.  If Dray does all of those things, he will feel into the game, and when he feels into the game, he'll rebound better, like he did yesterday. 

Upon first viewing of this game, it seemed Blatche was doing less and doing it in more consistent spots, but I think a second viewing is in order.  I decided to watch exactly what Blatche was doing on the 25 possessions he ended with a shot (18), assist (5), turnover (1) or free throw (1).  For each of them, I'm going to list where he caught the ball, how many dribbles he made and the end result of the play.  Without further ado.

Make the jump for the results.

Continue reading this post »

I was just traveling today and working to get Internet access.  I'm working on a Blatche-centric recap, so stay tuned.

I don't have much time today to write a ton about the Eddie Jordan firing.  The short version, to me, is that it's unfortunate, but necessary considering that, at 1-10 with losses to several bad teams, a high seed in the playoffs was never going to happen.  This team needed a new voice at the helm, and Eddie Jordan isn't it.  I will always wonder what would have happened to this team if there were no injuries, but injuries cannot excuse a 1-10 start like this. 

However, before we ride Eddie off into the sunset, I think we need to remember what he brought to this team.  It's a cliche, but before Eddie came on board, this franchise was a laughingstock.  We were coming off the Jordan years, a period that robbed our roster of all its young talent and saddled it with overpriced veterans.  To turn things around as quickly as we did is a credit to Ernie Grunfeld, but it's also a credit to Eddie Jordan.  It was Eddie Jordan that was here to make this franchise respectable again and it was Eddie Jordan who provided the building blocks for future success, no matter how disasterous this season has been.

It was Eddie Jordan's system that turned our offense into one of the league's best over the past few years.  Throughout his tenure, Eddie Jordan was dealt a team that lacked a prototypical pass-first point guard and a strong post-up big man.  He was given a team with three extremely talented perimeter scorers (first Hughes, then Butler) that lacked several seemingly  essential tools for their respective positions.  Gilbert Arenas and Larry Hughes were seen as shoot-first gunners that were combo guards.  Antawn Jamison was seen as a soft tweenter.  Caron Butler had been traded twice because his team could not find a position for him.  And yet, Eddie created an offensive system designed to make the most of those players' talents, rather than putting square pegs in round holes.  He put them in a position to succeed, which will be essential for the next coach of this club.  And for that, he deserves a ton of credit.

Eddie always got his teams to play hard, even by the end of his tenure.  The players loved him and did all they could for him.  Eddie's coaching job in bringing last year's team to the playoffs without Arenas was outstanding.  We should not overlook it.

Of course, Eddie had too many faults to continue as head coach.  We've talked about them before, so there's no need to rehash them here.  I support Ernie's decision to relieve him of his duties and I am confident it will eventually help the team.

But gosh-dang-it, Eddie Jordan still deserves some appreciation during his swan song.  He brought an air of respectability and professionalism to a franchise desperately seeking it.  For that, he should be commended.

via assets.espn.go.com

I love this photo because literally every single player is ignoring Isiah Thomas.  I'm sure I'm taking this out of context, but it's just so damn amusing.

Anyway, the Knicks will trot out a skeleton crew tonight after their two big trades yesterday.  The result the last time we played the Knicks caused me to unleash this epic rant that made less sense than anything that's ever been posted here.  Hopefully, that won't happen again tonight.

I'm taking the girlfriend out tonight, so I'll probably catch this one on archive.  For those watching live, chat about the game here.

GO WIZARDS!