2,015 Questions - #2013: Do win shares say the Knicks will make the playoffs?

Sadly, there will be no graphs in this post. I know. I'm just as upset as you are. Instead, I plan on looking at how many win shares each team has added or subtracted this offseason. I'm going to take a weighted average of the players' last three seasons worth of win shares, with 2013-14 weighted most, 2012-13 second most, and 2011-12* least. Of course, if a player hasn't yet played three seasons or sat a season out, I'll change the formula as needed.

*For 2011-12, I'm multiplying each player's win shares by 1.24 because win shares is a cumulative stat, which basically means that the more games a player plays, the bigger the number will usually be. That season, as you'll remember, was only 66 games, and 82/66 is 1.24. It's technically not necessary for me to do this since everyone is similarly affected, but I'm more comfortable with the numbers this way.

Let's begin! (I'm not going to include draft picks or undrafted free agents. Anyone who hasn't signed with any team yet is left out also.)

Additions: Thabo Sefolosha (2.3 Weighted-Average Win Shares)

Subtractions: Cartier Martin (1.0 WAWS)

Additions: Tyler Zeller (2.4 WAWS), Marcus Thornton (2.9 WAWS), Evan Turner (1.9 WAWS)

Subtractions: Kris Humphries (4.0 WAWS), Jerryd Bayless (2.9 WAWS)

Additions: Jarrett Jack (3.8 WAWS), Sergey Karasev (-0.1 WAWS), Brook Lopez (was injured) (9.0 WAWS)

Subtractions: Shaun Livingston (3.3 WAWS), Paul Pierce (6.4 WAWS), Marcus Thornton (2.9 WAWS)

Additions: Marvin Williams (3.2 WAWS), Brian Roberts (2.2 WAWS), Lance Stephenson (5.5 WAWS)

Subtractions: Josh McRoberts (4.3 WAWS), Luke Ridnour (2.2 WAWS), Anthony Tolliver (2.2 WAWS), Ben Gordon (0.0 WAWS)

Additions: Pau Gasol (4.4 WAWS), Aaron Brooks (1.6 WAWS), Derrick Rose (7.4 WAWS)**

Subtractions: Carlos Boozer (5.2 WAWS), DJ Augustin (4.1 WAWS), Jimmer Fredette (0.8 WAWS), Lou Amundson (0.3 WAWS), Ronnie Brewer (1.2 WAWS), Mike James (0.1 WAWS)

**I used only his WS from 2011-12 here, since he only played 10 games last year and not at all in 2012-13. I do think it's important to note that we have no idea what he'll look like over a full season at this point, so I'm cautious about following this prediction.

Additions: LeBron James (17.4 WAWS), Kevin Love (13.8 WAWS), Mike Miller (3.2 WAWS), James Jones (0.8 WAWS)

Subtractions: Anthony Bennett (-0.4 WAWS), Jarrett Jack (3.8 WAWS), Sergey Karasev (-0.1 WAWS), CJ Miles (2.4 WAWS), Spencer Hawes (4.3 WAWS), Luol Deng (5.5 WAWS)

Additions: Cartier Martin (1.0 WAWS), DJ Augustin (4.1 WAWS), Jodie Meeks (4.1 WAWS), Aaron Gray (0.5 WAWS), Caron Butler (2.6 WAWS)

Subtractions: Rodney Stuckey (2.9 WAWS)

Additions: CJ Miles (2.4 WAWS), Rodney Stuckey (2.9 WAWS)

Subtractions: Evan Turner (1.9 WAWS), Lance Stephenson (5.5 WAWS), Paul George (injured) (9.6 WAWS)

Additions: Danny Granger (3.1 WAWS), Josh McRoberts (4.3 WAWS), Luol Deng (5.5 WAWS), Shawne Williams (0.7 WAWS)

Subtractions: LeBron James (17.4 WAWS), James Jones (0.8 WAWS)

Additions: Jerryd Bayless (2.9 WAWS), Kendall Marshall (0.5 WAWS), Jared Dudley (3.9 WAWS)

Subtractions: Jeff Adrien (1.7 WAWS)

Additions: Jason Smith (1.5 WAWS), Jose Calderon (6.7 WAWS), Shane Larkin (-0.1 WAWS), Samuel Dalembert (4.0 WAWS), Quincy Acy (1.3 WAWS), Travis Outlaw (0.8 WAWS)

Subtractions: Tyson Chandler (7.5 WAWS), Raymond Felton (2.9 WAWS), Toure Murry (0.0 WAWS)

Additions: Ben Gordon (0.0 WAWS), Evan Fournier (1.2 WAWS), Luke Ridnour (2.2 WAWS), Channing Frye (4.9 WAWS)

Subtractions: Arron Afflalo (4.4 WAWS), Jameer Nelson (2.8 WAWS)

Additions: Alexey Shved (0.6 WAWS), Luc Mbah a Moute (1.2 WAWS), Hasheem Thabeet (0.8 WAWS)

Subtractions: Thaddeus Young (5.5 WAWS)

Additions: James Johnson (1.9 WAWS), Greg Stiemsma (1.9 WAWS), Jordan Hamilton (1.1 WAWS), Diante Garrett (-0.6 WAWS)

Subtractions: Nando de Colo (1.1 WAWS), Steve Novak (2.8 WAWS)

Additions: Kris Humphries (4.0 WAWS), Paul Pierce (6.4 WAWS), DeJuan Blair (3.3 WAWS), Melvin Ely (0.0 WAWS)

Subtractions: Trevor Ariza (5.5 WAWS), Trevor Booker (3.5 WAWS)

So, ordered from most WAWS gained to most WAWS lost, the Eastern Conference stacks up like this:

Eastern Conference Teams ranked by WAWS added

Team	2013-14 Wins	Change in WAWS
Cleveland Cavaliers	33	+19.7
Detroit Pistons	29	+9.4
Milwaukee Bucks	15	+5.6
Washington Wizards	44	+4.7
New York Knicks	37	+3.8
Charlotte Hornets	43	+2.2
Chicago Bulls	48	+1.7
Atlanta Hawks	38	+1.3
Orlando Magic	23	+1.1
Toronto Raptors	48	+0.7
Boston Celtics	25	+0.3
Brooklyn Nets	44	+0.1
Philadelphia 76ers	19	-2.9
Miami Heat	54	-5.2
Indiana Pacers	56	-11.7

By adding each team's change in WAWS to its record from 2013-14, we can approximate the 2014-15 Eastern Conference standings. Remember that rookies aren't included, nor is anyone who's still a free agent.

Projected 2014-15 EC Standings

Rank	Team	Wins	Losses
1	Cleveland Cavaliers	53	29
2	Chicago Bulls	50	32
3	Washington Wizards	49	33
3	Toronto Raptors	49	33
3	Miami Heat	49	33
6	Charlotte Hornets	45	37
7	Indiana Pacers	44	38
7	Brooklyn Nets	44	38
9	New York Knicks	41	41
10	Atlanta Hawks	39	43
11	Detroit Pistons	38	44
12	Boston Celtics	25	57
13	Orlando Magic	24	58
14	Milwaukee Bucks	21	61
15	Philadelphia 76ers	16	66

There are a few things I'd like to highlight here. Most importantly, the Knicks unfortunately miss the playoffs. However, it's easy to see how my system is flawed. First, while 50 wins seems about right for the Bulls, I'm not sure about Derrick Rose, as I mentioned above. On the other hand, the method overrates Carlos Boozer, so it might even out. Second, even though the Cavs gained almost 20 wins, I imagine my method still underrates them. In a weak conference, they could easily approach 60 wins.

Regardless, I'd say the other 13 teams were pretty accurately represented. If I recall correctly, the Knicks' competition for a bottom playoff seed this year has been viewed as the Hornets, Hawks, Nets, and Pistons for a while now, and each of those teams rank in the 6-11 seed range here. As for the Knicks, I do think my method underrates them by two or three wins. That was basically a given, considering the 2012-13 and 2013-14 teams' true talent level probably lies closer to 45 wins than 54 or 37. They've made good additions in Jose Calderon and Samuel Dalembert and good subtractions in Mike Woodson and Raymond Felton. Also, you know, COLE WORLD. As such, I could easily see them getting to 45 wins and grabbing a seed anywhere from 6-8. Or, if you want to allow for blind offseason optimism, I could easily see the Knicks getting to 98 wins and hoisting the Larry O'Brien trophy. Whatever works for you.