FanPost

Good Questions vs Great Questions: 3 MORE KNICKS

GOOD MORNING YOU SCOUNDRELS

Last week I wrote up a a fanpost looking at popular possible developments for 3 key knicks: Trey, Frank, and Mario. The idea of the post was to identify one "good question" people would be waiting to answer about the player as the year went on, and one "great question" that was arguably less discussed but more important. Below I have copied and pasted the intro, but feel free to skip on down to the

The players we care about on the Knicks are very flawed, except for Kristaps (who is a unicorn angel and will not be slandered in any of the paragraphs which follow). With the long offseason, it is only natural to speculate on how these players will address their flaws -- it's why we gravitate toward any potential indicators of progress from June to October, even unreliable ones like cliche interview soundbites and heavily edited video of workouts and runs on Instagram. In the comment sections, we speculate on the paths to glory and all star selections for our young players, or the paths to redemption for the off-season's latest 1-year flyer signings.

The collective P&T fandom will often hone in on a consensus prescription ("be more aggressive, Frank!" or "be good at *anything*, Mudiay!") which would lead our neighborhood Knicks to Glory. But are these prescriptions always the best path for our would-be-future-stars on the Knicks for the year to come?

With that in mind, I set out to look at the Knicks we care about, what a bunch of Knicks fans here and across the internet are hoping and praying they do, and what I think they really need to do. For each of a few key Knicks, I have picked out a "good question" which is a popular question being asked by fans regarding how they can elevate their game this year. I also picked out a "great question" which I will argue is even more important for them to answer this year if they are to have bright futures in the NBA.

Tim Hardaway Jr.

Good Question: Can THJ become a more efficient shooter / will he have more efficient shot selection?

Great Question: Will THJ improve anything else in his game at all -- driving, passing, rebounding, or defense, for instance?

Everyone on P&T for the most part knows that THJ is very talented on offense but constantly undermines his own ability by taking a variety of awful shots often. Tim blessed the knicks last year as one of the few players able to create offense aside from KP, and also as one of the few shooters who was comfortable taking a large amount of 3s per game, helping modernize our team's shot profile more than any other player. Unfortunately, at least one or two of his 7 threes per game would inevitably be early clock well defended off the dribble 3s, or "quick release" catch and shoots where he purposely abbreviates his entire shot motion to get it off quicker, or moving right or left for no real reason, etc., etc. etc. Awful stuff.

Literally removing one of those bad 3s per game would mathematically take him from 31% on high volume from 3 to league average % from 3 on high volume. Doesn't seem like much to ask of a coach, right? Unfortunately, the weight of evidence available -- how he played with KP and with KP out, how he played early in his career, how he played in Atlanta, and how he even plays in practices and pickup, pretty much leads to a single conclusion: this is just how he rolls. The only time in his career where he has EVER had any chill regarding jumpshot shot selection was when he was the 4th option in Atlanta, and he had no choice but to work in the flow of the offense amongst superior players, feasting off spot ups and simpler shots in the halfcourt and getting out in transition when he could. This year, he will be arguably the #1 scoring option along with Enes and Trey, so I don't think there is a good chance of him controlling his shot selection more. He has shown no self awareness in that regard.

This is why seeing whether he'll improve efficiency isn't the best bet for this year. Instead, let's focus on monitoring whether he improves other facets of his game.

For example, last year he put up career high REB% and RPG, which is a bigger deal for this Knicks team than many on the forum acknowledge. Positional rebounding is going to be huge for this team in the future because KP will always be below average at that, so the other positions need to more than hold their weight for us to not get crushed on the glass, even in the age of small ball. For Rebounding, the question is: was THJ's increased rebounding due to him playing more minutes at the 3? Or because he made a more concerted effort to crash regardless? Coach Fizdale said he is not a fan of playing Tim and Court at the 3 because of the big 3s they would have to defend like Giannis and Bron, but I think one of the real reasons why he is doing this is for positional rebounding. Tim can and should be a plus rebounding 2 with his athleticism and size.

Whatabout passing? Last year all his passing metrics were down from the year prior in Atlanta, but context matters - his role was much different in NYK. The usage rate was about the same, but he was tasked with more creation responsibility in NY than ATL. So I think you could argue that he had a more impressive passing season despite slightly lower AST/TO, APG, and AST%. It's not a super strong argument, but it's there lol and I'll be looking to see if he improves his passing - hallmarks of the most improved 2 guards in this league is always developing handle, which leads to blossoming ability to drive and to pass around 4-5 years into the league/ age 22-24.

Speaking of drives, he improved his drives per game last year from 4.8 to 5.2 per NBA.com, but I am not sure if that includes halfcourt only or transition too (where THJ excels). He also went from shooting 50% on drives to shooting 43%, which is a pretty bad dropoff. I'd guess it's due to Atlanta playing both faster, and him playing off very good players rather than very shitty ones, as most of his drives are simple catch-1-2 dribble-shoot sequences. Lotta noise in those numbers, either way, but with Fizdale and Trey Burke pushing the pace we should see Tim get at least a little bump in both quantity and quality of forays to the hoop.

Anecdotally, his defense was extremely inconsistent last year. Him playing at the 2 spot more should help a bit, as Lance, Knox, and Mario can take bigger wings...but I don't really expect him to show much more consistency on that end. He is who he is for the most part - someone who is capable both off ball and at point of attack, but doesn't have consistency in how often he gets around screens, communicates, makes the right rotations, etc. Of course, it is still something to monitor.

Mitchell Robinson

Good Question: Is he ready to defend adults with bags of face up and post up moves who are stronger than him, and to understand pro defensive schemes?

Great Question: How well can he rebound?

This is the most pronounced instance of people not asking the right questions, IMO, of this whole series. Almost all young bigs get washed and waxed by NBA bigs upon entering the league, regardless of how elite of a shot blocker they are, and there is 0 reason to think Meech can do what KAT, AD, and other elite-in-college defensive athletic bigs could NOT do. However, there is nothing wrong with that! It is just part of the learning curve. Just gotta hope he runs into a few games where he can make up for missing rotations and getting bodied by catching dudes off guard with his athleticism from the weakside.

INSTEAD, we should be asking about his rebounding. We KNOW his shot blocking will translate - it is the only part of the "can he defend" question I think I am comfortable answering affirmatively. But a 5, whether starting with KP or part of a bench rotation, needs to rebound. We know he vacuumed boards in HS off athleticism alone, averaging 12.5 boards a game, but most people don't know he also had 20 rebounds per 40 minutes in his few Nike EYBL games, which is best in the history of that league. However, that was only a few games. Rebounding is something for bigs we don't have to really speculate alot over, as it translates better than any other metric from college to the NBA, but we don't have that for Meech, so I will be watching and hoping he settles this question very early on, either in the GLeague or in the NBA.

Kevin Knox

Good Question: How does his 3-ball look as a rookie?

Great Question: How does his handle look under NBA defensive pressure?

Kevin's value on offense in his career will largely be defined by whether or not he is just an OK or a Very Good 3 pt shooter at his size. However, rooks (Jayson Tatum and Donny Mitchell aside) usually have rough 3 pt shooting stats in their first year. Getting used to both the NBA distance and the NBA athletes (not to mention playing more, longer games) usually does the trick and dooms their 3%. Add in the fact that NYK doesn't have many creators to drive and kick and provide open looks for Kev and I'd say we're looking at a 32% from 3 this year s. It's not something I'm THAT curious about, because for the most part we know the deal with him.

Instead, I will be looking at how his handle develops. In Kentucky we saw him improve his handle and his finesse game real-time as the year went on, incorporating floaters and eurosteps more in the 2nd half of his freshmen year. This year i'll be looking for him to utilize moves that I suspect he has, but couldn't bust out in Kentucky's super-crowded halfcourt -- some in and outs, some basic left to right/right to left crosses. Also, depending on how Fizdale plays him, he very well may find himself with a speed advantage that he often didn't get in college playing with so many other power forwards. Jayson Tatum averaged 5.7 drives per game in a well-oiled offense, Josh Jackson averaged 6.5 drives per game in Phoenix. Both have better handle by a fair bit than Kev. As a rook, Jaylen Brown averaged 2.3 drives per game in 2016-17. Brandon Ingram as a rook averaged 4.8 drives a game as a rook. You'll notice I am not citing their FG% on drives - I don't care, for purposes of Kev improving his handle and his aggressiveness, about him finishing well as a rook. We know he has no left, but the important thing as a rookie is to be aggressive and work on his handle. He also has a plus floater game, which means if he can get some straight line drives he has that option available as well for scoring.

I think we can expect Kev to be somewhere between Jaylen and Ingram in this season in ters of handle and driving skill. Fizdale's Miami and Memphis teams made a huge deal about constantly having guys drive, kick, drive, kick, even bigger players, but I don't know if NYK has the personnel for that. Can Kev do it? We'll see. Him getting to the hoop and getting fouled using his size will be a hugely important way he can break out of the "Tobias Harris" mold, and we all want to see him be more than just a jump shooter on offense.