FanPost

Should Noah Vonleh have ball handling duties? Let's investigate! (part 1)


Recently Remyswords and MMiranda have noticed that Vonleh flashes a pretty slick handle when he brings the ball up the court, but pretty much always hands or passes the ball off to a teammate as soon as he reaches the 3 point line. There are times where a transition DHO can be really effective (kind of like a drag screen). See, for example, this play where Vonleh hands the ball off to Dotson

— TKW Clips (@TKWClips) October 21, 2018 ">Vonleh/Dot DHO

While RON (be sure to pour one out for him while you watch this clip) helps Dot get some separation from his man with a nice corner pin down, the DHO seals the deal. Actions like this (Drag screens and early DHOs) are often very effective in transition for two reasons:

(1) You often generate mismatches. In transition, the top priority for the defense is to stop the ball. But, transition play is often chaotic, and the defender with the best chance of stopping the ball won't always be the guy you'd optimally have guarding the ball handler.

(2) It makes it hard for the defense to effectively communicate. Notice in the video how Celtics players have their backs to Vonleh up until the last moment, including center Daniel Theis. Everyone is trying to pick up their man. Because of this, no one is able to see the floor and effectively call out the screens or coverages for Taytum, and as a result he has to deal with the pin down and DHO blind. On a play where defensive communication is essential for effectiveness, that's a huge win for the offense. And, in this case, Dot gets an open jumper out of it (Dot has an annoying tendency of stepping inside the line when he comes around screens, but I'll leave that for another day).

Although this can be effective, Remy and MMiranda have wanted to see Vonleh do more than this. Specifically, they've wanted to see him attack the basket off the dribble in transition. And, for good reason. Watch the above play again. Theis picks Vonleh up at the top of the key at about the 10 second mark. At that point, Theis--who is already at an athletic disadvantage--is back pedaling and slightly off balance. Further, there is no one behind him to offer help if Vonleh gets by him. That looks like a pretty great recipe for an easy finish at the rim. And, it's a recipe that Vonleh should be able to whip up regularly when he brings the ball up the court in transition against slower less athletic 5s.

But, why stop there? It's pretty obvious that Vonleh is a great ball handler for his size/position, so why not give him more initiating duties in the offense? In the rest of this post, I'm going to discuss why it might be a good idea to let him initiate the offense some, but I'll also highlight some reasons for not getting our hopes up too high.

Can Vonleh be an offensive initiator?

Offensive initiators need to be able to efficiently create shots for themselves and/or others. The very best initiators are able to do both incredibly well. I don't think there's any reason to think that Vonleh has the ability to efficiently create shots in the midrange (he's 5-14 from between 10 feet and the edge of the 3 point line this year), which also suggests we should be skeptical about his ability to do so from deep. But, I'll leave a more thorough discussion of that and of his ability to create for others for another day. So, let's turn our attention to his ability to create shots for himself at the rim.

Assessing Vonleh's ability to create shots for himself at the rim:

This is the area where I think we have the most reason for optimism. Vonleh has a unique blend of size, strength, athleticism, and ball handling ability which should allow him to be an elite finisher at the rim--yeah I really mean that. As you may already know, Vonleh is 6'9", 245 lbs (almost the same dimensions as Blake Griffin), and has a fantastic 9'4" standing reach (that's the same as DeAndre Ayton, and would be in the top 5 for each of the last 5 draft classes per NBA.com). Regarding his athleticism, here is the standing vertical and max vertical for (a) Blake Griffin, (b) Aaron Gordon, and (c) Noah Vonleh as recorded at their their respective combines (from NBA.com):

(a) 32", 35.5"

(b) 32.5", 39"

(c) 31", 37".

Of course, combine numbers aren't the be all end all. Kevin Love put up ridiculous combine numbers (his max vert was only 1/2" worse than Blake Griffin's, and he ran like lightning), but that athleticism doesn't show up on the court. Nonetheless, if you saw those numbers, knew about Vonleh's ball handling ability, and saw this highlight of Vonleh exploding past Giannis for a dunk (Vonleh yams over Giannis), you'd feel pretty good about his abilities to get to hoop.

And, that's the reason for optimism. Vonleh literally has all the tools to be an elite finisher. He has a great first step for a guy his size (see the dunk over Giannis above, and start this video at 1:29, and check this out). He has the leaping ability and length to explode and score over the defense. He has the strength/size to use shoulder drops to make space under the hoop. He has a decent spin move, and can do work with his back to the basket. And, even in college he showed that he had the ability to score off the bounce (Watch from 7:24-8:00).

Despite that, not only does Vonleh not get asked to create his own offense off the dribble, but he's been a pretty bad finisher at the hoop throughout his NBA career (he's only shooting 59% at the rim and 52% between 0-6 feet this year per Basketball Reference, compare that to Blake Griffin's 73% at the rim this year).

So, what gives? I think the previous video gives us a clue. Notice that, despite all of his tools, he doesn't finish above the rim once in that video. He's playing against significantly less athletic college players, and he's unable to explode over them and put the ball into the basket. Instead, he settles for high difficulty below the rim shots (on one play, he can't even get a shot off). And, throughout his NBA career, that's been the case for Vonleh too.

Here's Vonleh's Dunk numbers for his first 4& 1/2 seasons (from Basketball Reference):

2014-15: 3… somehow

2015-16: 36

2016-17: 57

2017-18: 26

2018-19: 29 (so far)

And here are Blake Griffin's dunk #s for his first 4 seasons (from Basketball Reference)

2010-11: 242

2011-12: 244

2012-13: 219

2013-14: 212

Obviously, the comparison is a bit unfair because Blake was an elite dunker those years. But, it emphasizes the point that Vonleh doesn't finish above the rim enough (Watch from 47-1:06 in this video why is he not dunking this?!) It also reinforces the Kevin Love NBA combine lesson--combine numbers don't always translate to the court--which we should all remember as we check out prospects for the upcoming draft.

Still, I think there's some hope. The eye test suggests to me that he really struggles to explode in traffic from a standstill. Even when he gets an offensive rebound and has inside position, he'll pump fake and put the ball up against the backboard near flat footed instead of exploding up and slamming it or laying it in the hoop. BUT! when he gets a running start, we see plays like the dunk over Giannis or this--> Vonleh yammin'.

(Although I don't know for sure, part of the explanation for this might be that Vonleh is a 2-foot jumper, and his feet are typically at least shoulder width apart when he jumps. And, if you haven't noticed, he has massive shoulders. As a result, he needs more space to get up, and it's difficult to get that in traffic.)

This is all great news, in my opinion, because Vonleh has been given very few opportunities to do that throughout his NBA career. So far, Vonleh has spent the majority of his time playing in the post, setting screens, and trying (and only this year succeeding) to spread the floor. He's spent almost no time with the ball in his hands as an initiator. Of course, given that his previous stops were on playoff bound teams (with the exception of the Bulls), it makes sense that he wasn't asked to do that. But, *checks notes*... *checks notes again*.... can that be right? *checks notes again*, the Knicks are not in the playoff hunt! This is a developmental year, and there's very little to lose by seeing what Vonleh can do in this respect. And, while his difficulty exploding in traffic and from a stand still may put a ceiling on his ability to create shots at the rim, there's a lot to gain by finding out what he can do.

So, Knicks brass, if you've started reading this because your Instagram scroll got screwed up and there was no new content literally anywhere else on the internet but you still needed a few more minutes in the bathroom and in desperation you were driven to check the Fanposts on P&T and you've somehow read this far **breathes deeply, hacks up a lung, clears throat--"ahem"--** get the ball in Vonleh's hands in positions where he can have a runway to explode to the hoop! We might see his efficiency inside sky rocket. And...

Here's four ideas for how to do this:

(1) Like Remyswords and MMiranda have suggested, I'd like to see Vonleh be given the freedom to attack the rim in transition.

(2) When Vonleh brings the ball up the court, I'd like to see us run drag screens for him to generate early offense. One of the things Milwaukee has done an excellent job of is setting screens for Giannis in transition. While Giannis is amazing, this play is effective for more reasons than that. PnR's are designed to put the defense in disadvantageous situations. But, defenses spend an enormous amount of time practicing how to minimize those disadvantages. Typically, however, they practice having guard and wing players screened, and big men in the drop position. This isn't surprising, since the majority of PnRs involve just this, because so few big men have the handle to run the PnR. As a result, if you can screen the other teams 4/5 and force a 1-3 to play drop coverage, you can gain a significant advantage. Combine that with the difficulty of covering transition screens (see above) and with Giannis' incredible abilities and you get this: Watch from 1:18-1:36. It's almost unbelievable how much space Giannis has when he comes around those screens. There's no reason that Vonleh can't generate that same amount of space with his handle and first step.

(3) I'd like to see Vonleh keep the ball on the DHO sometimes. Because of how often we run DHO, and how rarely our big men keep the ball, you'll often find opposing centers stepping out to slow down the guard/wing just before they get the ball. As a result, Vonleh should have enough room to keep the ball sometimes and drive to the hoop.

(4) I'd like to see him start attacking closeouts more. He's done this some (as a few of the videos above illustrated), but the way his 3 has been dropping he'll have more future opportunities.

So, that's that! If people like this, and I have time, I'll come back and write up some my thoughts about his ability as a shot creator from deep and as a passer. But, this is plenty long enough for now. Thanks for reading friends!